Big Bird Beaten Down in Alley, Mitt Romney Arrested

They were holding me down and Mitt wanted to cut my hair and I was screaming "Somebody get these dam republicans off of me"

The Tele-Type was spitting out headlines faster than I could read...  Unemployment Down to 7.8% GOP Flips Out...  Romney Loses Talking Points...  Must re-Invent reasons for running... Jack Welch Embraces Senility...  Obama Killed Osama,  Mitt will Kill Big Bird...  Cookie Monster Frightened...  Man Pretending to be Barack Obama and Man Pretending to be Mitt Romney hold Debate...  Republicans Excited and Democrats Dismayed...  Jim Lehrer Dissed for Lack of Control...  Next Debate Moderator will be Big Bird...   Closer to home I have buried 5 gallons of gas to fund my retirement.

6th District NEWS

  SCHMOOKLER   -   GOODLATTE

DEBATE

Tuesday, October 16, 7:30 PM - Andy Schmookler, our Democratic nominee in Virginia’s 6th Congressional district, will debate his opponent Congressman Bob Goodlatte in the Supreme Court Room of Liberty University’s School of Law, located on the main campus in Lynchburg.  Come out and show your support for Andy during this important event.

Republican Flip-Out over Economy Improving

It was a move of .3 of a point that sent the republicans over the deep end.  That small move took the unemployment down to 7.8 % and set off a republican pouting fit unseen in this country, Ever, over things getting better.   It ended a GOP talking point celebrating the number of months the jobless rate has been above 8%.  Republicans have spent the last 4 years blocking any measure that would improve the economy or allow Obama to get a win on any issue.  

John Boehner, Mitch McConnell and Eric Cantor have positioned their troops to block anything the Democrats or President Obama have wanted to do that would create jobs, improve education or firm up the shaky economy.   The American Economy Refuses to Let Republicans Block a Recovery and even though they slowed the process down things are Getting Better.   We are Better Off than We Were 4 Years Ago.

Their only goal is to capture the white house, to make Obama a one term president and they were even bold enough to admit it.   With enemies like this living right here under our noses we don't need to look beyond our shores for danger.   If it helped push their partisan agenda they would sell grandma down the road.   Republicans are unfit to govern and the sooner the public sends them a firm rebuttal the sooner they will adjust their behavior.

Mitt Romney is getting tough and sending out the word that he will kill Big Bird if elected.   That's Mitts way of balancing the scales, Obama Killed Osama so Mitt is going to Kills Big Bird.

I think Obama hid my tv remote, I don't have any proof but I can't find the remote.

Jack Welch has become like John McCain.   Place a microphone near his pie hole and he will mutter something stupid for attention.  This  "conspiracy theory"  only furthers the notion that Republicans, by and large, were rooting for economic failure under Obama.   The most happening thing that Jack Welch has going on is senility.

I know Obama messed with my tv remote.    It is just as plain as the faking of the moon landing.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney was dealt a blow Friday morning when September’s jobs report saw the jobless rate plunge to 7.8%.   Conservatives aren’t taking this lying down, led by Romney booster and former GE CEO Jack Welch, who tweeted that this is all the work of  “these Chicago guys.”

“Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything.....can’t debate so change numbers,”  Welch tweeted, making the job of Romney surrogates that much tougher by calling them  “unbelievable,”  and leaving the impression that the Obama Administration is behind a conspiracy to cook the jobs numbers.  conservatives would be wise not to follow Welch down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole, lest they be seen as crazy, and rooting against the success of the American worker.   It is already well known that they have blocked any and all efforts by President Obama to pass bills to help workers and the economy.

That things are improving is Good News.   The GOP needs to learn to deal with Good News.



Sproul Knew About Voter Registration Fraud for Weeks Before Getting Busted

Strategic Allied Consulting’s alleged voter registration fraud problems began back in August, according to Lee County’s voter Registration Director.

When Cheryl Johnson received some voter registration forms that looked suspicious, she called the person who submitted the forms. According to the Tampa Bay Times:  “It looked like someone had checked Republican in a number of party registration boxes in a manner that didn’t match the way the rest of the application was filled out.   Four of the forms appeared to have been filled out by the same person.”

Johnson called the person who dropped them off, Danielle Alvarez, a now former employee of Strategic Allied Consulting.   She met with Alvarez and a man by the name of Jack Reed sometime between September 6 and September 12.   You may recall the first we heard of the irregularities in Palm Beach County on September 26th.   This matters when you consider what happened next.

The Tampa Bay Times/Herald reports the company’s attorney; Fred Petti didn’t mention the problem in Lee County when he spoke with the publication last week.  He claimed that he didn’t know about other flagged forms in other counties.

This is the only person we’ve fired for this,” Petti said, referring to the Palm Beach employee.   “The only thing we’ve seen are the forms in Palm Beach.”    When asked about Lee County on Tuesday, however, Petti apologized. “I’m sorry,” Petti said. “I was running around like crazy that day.    If I said something that was inaccurate, I didn’t do it intentionally.    I was so focused on Palm Beach County.    I wasn’t purposely trying to mislead you.”

Sure, Mr. Petti, we believe you.  Just like we believe that Strategic Allied Consulting has never tolerated even the teensiest violation of Election law.    Just like we believe the Republican Party is so concerned about election integrity that it hired Nathan Sproul given his history and asked him create a new company, so that no one would know he was the same guy whose company was behind Republican voter registration irregularities in 2004.

Besides, as Strategic Allied Consulting’s spokesman David Leibowitz points out, the company filed thousands of legitimate registration forms.    So then, we should just forget about the increasing number of irregularities, now spanning to 12 counties in Florida alone.    No one is buying it.

Even if we didn’t believe it before, it gets increasingly difficult to believe that the Republican Party hired Sproul, as Congressman Elijah Cummings put it:   “Contrary to a ‘zero-tolerance’ policy, it appears that the RNC knew exactly what it was doing when it hired 
this company as the only one it uses to conduct this kind of work across the country.

We already know the RNC wanted Sproul to set up yet another shell company to disguise his history which looks a lot like his present.    The RNC ordered State parties to hire Strategic Allied Consulting and we know it was the only company hired in five battleground states, as Sarah Jones  pointed out previously.

Moreover, the Voter Registration irregularities are not restricted to Florida.    There’s that little incident in Colorado, Hraf  Haraldsson told us about on Friday.

When it happens once, it’s an isolated incident.  When it happens a few times in a limited area, then there’s room to suggest there might be a quality control problem.  When it happens in several states, it’s a pattern of behavior.  When the company engaged in that pattern of behavior is hired again under a new identity, it was hired to repeat that pattern of behavior.




The Republican War on Voting Is a Domestic Terrorist Attack on Democracy

Throughout world history, every instance of oligarchy involved a tyrannical power structure in which supremacy rested with a small number of people distinguished by royalty, wealth, or military control.    Such states were often controlled by a few prominent families who pass their influence from one generation to the next, and for the past 30 years in America, it has been the wealthy and corporations slowly seizing the reins of power. 

Oligarchy’s nemesis is American-style representative democracy founded on the principle that supreme power is vested in the people and exercised directly by them or by their elected agents, and it is in jeopardy of being replaced by oligarchy.   America’s Constitution provides that every citizen has a say in selecting their representatives, and it has been a hard-fought battle to ensure every voice is heard, but not all Americans support the Constitution or democracy, and in 2012 it is Republicans waging all-out war on America’s democratic form of government.

To promote the war on terror, George W. Bush told Americans they “hate us for our freedoms, they hate democracy” and it is still true today.    However, it is not al Qaeda, or extremist Muslims attacking Americans, it is the same group that has been waging war on the American people for the past three-and-a-half years, the 
Republican Party.    As domestic terrorists, Republicans have sought to undo the Constitution’s guarantee of equal rights, subvert the economy, and now, revoke voting privileges from an ever-growing segment of the population. 

The Republicans have a powerful ally in the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), and they have been successful in Republican-controlled states denying students, seniors, and especially minorities the right to vote with unconstitutional voter ID laws.

Republicans began their voter purge when they shut down ACORN based on fabricated evidence, and if they had been crushed then, the rash of ALEC-inspired voter suppression laws may not be dooming democracy today. 

Republicans claim the harsh voter suppression laws are necessary to prevent voter fraud, but in what is becoming a common occurrence, Republicans are projecting again and the rash of reports of Republican voter fraud are making that very clear. Pundits on the left are fond of saying Republicans will try to steal the election in November, but at the rate they are going, there will not be an election to steal if the only votes are sanctioned by Republicans.

The GOP has been in the business of voter fraud long before President Obama won in November 2008, and it happened at the local level as a matter-of-course.   In California, before there were open primaries, a typical tactic was handing out only Republican ballots regardless the voters’ registration or request for a Democratic ballot.   At a Republican training session to register new voters in 2010, there were specific rules for registering voters that are patently illegal in California.    For example, the prospective voter was not allowed to touch the voter registration form except to sign their name, and they saw pamphlets decrying the socialist 
threat of eliminating the right to vote, possess guns, and freedom to worship if Democrats were elected.   If a prospective voter was able to register as a Democrat, they were surprised to find they were Republicans when they arrived at their polling place.

The reports of GOP voter registration fraud going on around the country are shocking to many Americans, but it has been standard procedure for a long time and it will get much worse before it gets better as Republicans alienate more Americans with their agenda to transfer power from the people to the wealthy and their
corporations.    When Willard Romney revealed that he thinks 47% of Americans are parasites, he was referring to seniors, working poor Americans, veterans, and students, and they are most affected by ALEC’s harsh voter ID laws.    However, with women overwhelmingly supporting President Obama and Democrats, there are murmurs among Republicans that women voters may not be good for America.

Director of Issue Analysis at the American Family Institute, Bryan Fischer said,  “Women’s suffrage is the only thing keeping Obama in the game,”  and Republican congressman Darrel Issa said,  “If only men voted, Republicans would win every election,” and that is the sole reason Republicans are suppressing the vote;  to guarantee 
Republicans win every election to transform governance from a representative democracy to an oligarchy.   If women think they are immune from Republican voter disenfranchisement tactics, they need to think back over the past year-and-a-half and recollect there was a time when they thought their reproductive rights were safe. No American is safe from the GOP domestic terrorists.

Republicans are aware that their policies are not popular with the American people, and that they are not having any success convincing voters that giving everything to the wealthy is the path to prosperity.   Instead of following the will of the people, their intransigence is driving them to impose their will on the people by 
suppressing the vote and employing fraudulent voter registration tactics in states like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and California that have made the news.    Willard Romney, who says he likes the ALEC-sponsored voter ID laws said,   “I like voter ID laws, we need more of them.”    In Pennsylvania, a Republican admitted that the voter ID law struck down Monday  “is gonna allow Governor Romney to win the presidency…done!”     In Florida, Nevada, 
Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia, Wisconsin, and Ohio, a firm tied to Romney has been linked to illegally registering only Republicans supporting Mitt Romney.

It is time to call these harsh voter ID laws and fraudulent voter registration efforts more than disenfranchising voters or voter suppression; they are domestic terrorist attacks on democracy and they are uniquely Republican.    The American people are not buying Republican attempts to hand control of the government 
to corporations and the wealthy, so Republicans are silencing their voices the only way they have left;   eliminating the right to vote.   It is a bloodless coup d’état and the Republicans are not even attempting to conceal their efforts evident in ALEC sponsored voter ID laws that have been declared unconstitutional, and if 
any American thinks the upcoming election will be clean, they are naïve beyond belief.

In 2008, convicted war criminal Dick Cheney said he  “didn’t care what the American people think,”   and it was an omen of what Americans are seeing in 2012.    The entire Republican Party does not care what the people think, or want, and they will do anything to impose their harsh austerity measures on the people to complete their drive toward oligarchy, and the quickest way to silence dissent is restricting voting to Republican supporters.    It is an attack on democracy, the Constitution, and the American people, and without a harsh voter intervention in November, this may be the last time millions of Americans have an opportunity to have their voices heard.

ACVDN:    It is Your Move, Register and Vote

The Right Wing Conspiracy Theorists Who Attack Job Numbers Are Pathetic

The job numbers came out today, and they showed that the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%.    This got the radicals on the right all twisted and spouting absurd conspiracy theories that the BLS  (Bureau Of Labor And Statistics)  is conspiring to bring down the job numbers to get President Obama re-elected.

Unfortunately for them, the BLS isn’t the only statisticians in town.   We also have APD payroll, a private company that surveys private companies, and for months their numbers have been larger than BLS.

In fact, even this month ADP’s numbers came in bigger than the BLS final number.    Being conservative, you would think they would believe the private sector more than the public sector numbers.    But considering those numbers are actually better for Obama, they conveniently ignore that fact.

Another indicator that these right wing  BLS truthers  are just crying over nothing is Gallup polling.    Economic confidence is up, and the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence is also increased. What does that tell us?    People feel more confident in their economic situation, and are spending more money, etc.

Even Gallup polling for unemployment came in at 7.8%. The problem for Republicans is that these numbers don’t help their prospects of getting elected, or support their argument. It’s pathetic really.   When you think about it, the right is cheering on and hoping for bad numbers in order to increase their chances of winning elections.

If that isn’t unpatriotic, I don’t know what is.

The numbers are not  “cooked.”     It would be virtually impossible to fudge the numbers here and if the President could influence them, don’t you think he would have been doing that all along? Don’t you think Bush would have done it when we were losing hundreds of thousands of jobs a month?

It is very sad that the right is basically rooting for the American economy to fail just so they can gain political points.    It’s quite disheartening to see lawmakers joining the chorus as well.

It seems to be a common practice for businessmen and bankers to fudge and manipulate figures so it is no wonder they suspect everyone of doing what they do.



House Republicans Caught on Video Refusing to Stay in Session to Create Jobs

Democrats Rep. Elijah Cummings and Rep. Ruben Hinojosa attempted to stop the House adjournment in order to conduct more work, but the Republicans refused to acknowledge them and instead adjourned the Pro Forma session until Tuesday, Oct 9 at 11 AM, while legislative work will not resume until November 13. In other words, House Republicans denied the Democrats’ request to do further work for the people.

The pending agenda Republicans are kicking down the road is full of jobs bills, a middle class tax cut, the Violence Against Women Act, deficit reduction/Sequestration, relief for underwater homeowners, and more.

Watch Democrats Rep. Elijah Cummings and Rep. Ruben Hinojosa seeking recognition:

CLICK to   See Republican Obstruction


The CSPAN narrator makes a point that the House gaveled in and out for a brief pro forma session and that the cameras, which cut off right after the gaveling out, are not controlled by CSPAN but by the House.    They are in fact controlled by Speaker John Boehner, a fact revealed when Boehner cut the live feed during another attempt to get Republicans to do their job:

Speaker John Boehner doesn’t want you to see what went down today in a pro-forma session of the House as he and his fellow Republicans ran away from their responsibility to the people, ignoring Rep. Stenny Hoyer (D-MD)’s calls to put the Senate passed payroll tax holiday extension up for a vote.    He didn’t want you to see this so badly that he commandeered the congressional cameras to stop the live feed from the House floor.


Speaker Pelosi never cut the CSPAN feed in order to run away from her job.    Pelosi did grant additional coverage of the healthcare debates, as requested by C-SPAN, although both parties have refused to grant CSPAN more access than they currently have.

Your tax dollars at work — Republicans would rather campaign than do the people’s work, but this should come as no surprise since the  “work”  they have done is obstruct jobs while trying to restrict the rights of women, minorities and the gay community.    Oh, and arresting military moms.    Very, very busy.

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 ACVDN

Obama Gets His Butt Kicked in First Debate

If it was close I'd spin it, it wasn't.    The ship sailed and Obama was left standing on the dock.    Better luck next time.

President Obama Hard at Practice for the Debate

Lets face it the Bush Tax cuts should not be a part of the conversation today.   They should have been allowed to expire as originally scheduled.   Obama created his own problem in this area by being weak and surrendering to republican pressure.  Just a thought for the future, many people prepare and practice for a debate, just something to consider. 

Romney was Prepared

Last night Obama had the opportunity to close the door on the Romney campaign and sew the election up but he blew it.   Had Obama not showed up at all the famous Eastwood empty chair would have done a better job.   The President was so rattled that at times he made no sense at all, rambling and completely missing what ever point he was originally chasing.   Normally a, uh, good speaker, uh, yet his conversation, uh, at the debate, uh, was scattered, uh, with so many uhs that it was bothersome to the listener.

Jim Lehrer Attempted Moderating the Debate

The people around Obama are yes men that are letting him live in a bubble and the President is so used to being treated special that he was unable to handle a Romney who came to attack and fight.   The moderator had zero control over either party or the subject matter or the time.   Other than the opening introductions Jim Lehrer had as much control as a back row audience member.

As soon as Romney realized that he could lie unchallenged it was katie bar the door and off to the races.   Obama failed again and again to challenge Romney's version of the truth.   At points Romney even replaced the moderator.

Obama spent the night intently watching his shoes ignoring the first rule of debating, look at and pay close attention to the things the person who wants your job is saying.

Advice From Sam

And Now its time for a poem.   Wake The Fuck Up by Samuel L. Jackson with a slight change by ACVDN.

Sorry, my friend, but there's no time to snore.
And out-of-touch millionaires just declared war.
On schools, the environment, unions, fair pay, and telling the truth
We're all on our own if Romney has his way.
One more bad debate night and hope will fade away.
Romney is against safety nets, if you fall, tough luck.
So I strongly suggest President Obama, that you wake the fuck up.



Here's what Obama's supporters are saying, that should wake you up.

Love or Hate Him, Michael Tells the Truth

Michael Moore rants about Obama's debate, blames John Kerry. 


Documentary filmmaker Michael Moore went on a Twitter rant over President Obama's performance on Wednesday night at the first presidential debate. 

The progressive activist said Obama's debate performance was lack-luster and failed to fire up the base.    "Fire all debate consultants now,"  he tweeted, adding  "This is what happens when you pick John Kerry as your debate coach."

Obama's Debate Teacher

Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) stood in for Mitt Romney in Obama's debate preparation.

Moore was not pleased with debate moderator Jim Lehrer either, tweeting that he might have been coached by Clint Eastwood.  Eastwood, addressing the Republican National Convention in late August, spoke to an empty chair on stage.

Bill was let Down

Political commentator and comedian Bill Maher, who has given a million dollars to the super-PAC supporting Obama, similarly blamed Lehrer for what he called a win for Romney.

Romney won the debate, Obama had the facts on his side, and Lehrer sucked.   Next debate, get Seth Macfarlane to host!    — Bill Maher 

At one point in his Twitter rant, Moore asked first lady Michelle to "give him the signal" and urged Obama not to pull his punches.  He also asked if former President Clinton, who has become a mainstay on the campaign trail for Obama, could substitute for the president.

Is Bill Clinton coming in to sub for the next quarter? O! Wake up! Attack! That is not john McCain over on that podium!  — Michael Moore 

Pundits across the networks were resoundingly negative about President Obama's performance during Wednesday's debate, with most expressing disappointment that he was not more aggressive in the first face-to-face meeting of the two candidates.

Big ED won't Spin

MSNBC anchor Ed Schultz, along with a panel of other commentators appearing on the left-leaning network, said the president had failed to respond to Mitt Romney's claims on healthcare.

"I thought the president tonight was disappointing when he allowed Mitt Romney to talk about $716 billion in Medicare and the president did not come out and explain it and go after it," he said. Speaking on Current TV, former Vice President Al Gore also expressed concern that Obama didn't answer Romney's 
claim on Medicare.

Al knows about bad debating

“I thought he handled the Medicare answer well but ... he allowed Gov. Romney to make that $716 billion charge that was completely blown away at the Democratic convention, and then, all of a sudden, it is back again, and somebody that just tuned in for the first time might think, oh, well, President Obama is cutting all this money out of Medicare and Romney is going to ride to the rescue,” he said.

The first debate, in Denver, focused on the economy, and most liberal pundits agreed with Schultz's observation that Romney was "in his wheelhouse when he was talking about the economy."

Chris  Mattthews

But most expressed stronger opinions on Obama's failure to perform, with left-leaning MSNBC anchor Chris Matthews, also speaking on MSNBC, lambasting Obama for "enduring the debate rather than fighting it."

"What was [Obama] doing tonight?   He went in there disarmed, he was like, 'An hour and a half, I think I can get through his thing and I don't even look at this guy.' Whereas Romney, I love the split screen, staring at Obama, addressing him like the prey — he did it just right," he said, visibly frustrated with Obama's performance.

Former Obama adviser Van Jones also praised Romney for what he said was a strong performance that Obama might not have been prepared for, as it took pages right out of Obama's own book.

“He did not expect Romney to be able to throw that kind of heat,” he said on CNN.    “Romney was able to out-Obama Obama, on the connection piece, on the authenticity piece, on being able to tell the story. I think that they had the wrong strategy," he added.

Even famously liberal talk-show host Bill Maher was lukewarm on Obama's performance.   "I can't believe i'm saying this, but Obama looks like he DOES need a teleprompter," he tweeted.

Teleprompter didn't attend debate

And former adviser to President Clinton, James Carville, speaking on CNN, said that he had "one overwhelming impression."

James Carville

"It looked like Romney wanted to be there and President Obama didn't want to be there ... it gave you the impression that this whole thing was a lot of trouble," he said, adding that "Romney had a good night."

Ed Rendell: Obama 'looked lethargic, disinterested, passive'

That overarching sentiment was summed up by Matthews.

"What was Romney doing? He was winning," Chris said.

Big Bird Responds to Presidential Debate

What Did I Do To Mitt?

Big Bird who's giant meaty yellow tucas is on the line if Romney wins commented on the termination threat by the GOP leader.  To bad Big Bird is not politically minded, he would have done better in the debate last night, than that empty chair with the gone golfing sign on it.  Romney is famous for saying he likes to fire people and now he is stretching his target to include birds.  Whats next Mitt?  Send Mr. Ed the talking horse to the glue factory?  Deport the Taco Bell dog?

Want a piece of me?   Go for it Mitt.

Here's what Tony Soprano had to say.  "Romney promising to do a hit on Big Bird's funding was the most interesting comment in that whole screwy debate.  It moved me from unecided to supporting Obama 2012.   Nobody and I mean nobody, messes with the bird."

Hands Off The Bird

Big Bird commented  "My bed time is usually 7:45, but I was really tired yesterday and fell asleep at 7!  Did I miss anything last night?"

We Don't Stay Up Late

Big Bird earned a shout-out from Romney during the debate when the GOP presidential nominee pledged that as president he would eliminate the federal subsidy to PBS, home of the beloved children's show.

“I like PBS; I love Big Bird. Actually like you, too,” Romney said to debate moderator Jim Lehrer, the host of PBS's "NewsHour." “But I'm not going to keep on spending money on things to borrow money from China to pay for."

The Big Bird mention quickly became a popular moment of the debate, prompting conversation on Twitter and Facebook and launching high numbers of Google search queries.   The morning after the event, Big Bird and PBS are still trending nationwide on Twitter, where concern for his fate prompted creation of multiple accounts not associated with PBS or Sesame Workshop, including @FiredBigBird, which already has more than 27,000 followers.

Sherrie Westin, the executive vice president and chief marketing officer for the nonprofit organization behind  "Sesame Street,"  told CNN's "Starting Point" on Thursday that Sesame Workshop receives very little funding from PBS. She explained that the nonprofit raises its funding through licensed products and philanthropic sponsorship.

"You can debate whether or not there should be funding of public broadcasting," she said.   "But when they always try to tout out Big Bird, and say we’re going to kill Big Bird — that is actually misleading, because Sesame Street will be here.”

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Fact Check on Debate

President Barack Obama and Republican rival Mitt Romney spun one-sided stories in their first presidential 

debate, not necessarily bogus, but not the whole truth.

They made some flat-out flubs, too. The rise in health insurance premiums has not been the slowest in 50 years, as Obama stated. Far from it. And there are not 23 million unemployed, as Romney asserted.

Here's a look at some of their claims and how they stack up with the facts:

OBAMA:   "I've proposed a specific $4 trillion deficit reduction plan. ... The way we do it is $2.50 for every cut, we ask for $1 in additional revenue."

THE FACTS:   In promising $4 trillion, Obama is already banking more than $2 trillion from legislation enacted along with Republicans last year that cut agency operating budgets and capped them for 10 years.   He also claims more than $800 billion in war savings that would occur anyway.    And he uses creative book keeping to hide spending on Medicare reimbursements to doctors.   Take those "cuts" away and Obama's $2.50/$1 ratio of spending 
cuts to tax increases shifts significantly more in the direction of tax increases.

Obama's February budget offered proposals that would cut deficits over the coming decade by $2 trillion instead of $4 trillion. Of that deficit reduction, tax increases accounted for $1.6 trillion.   He promises relatively small spending cuts of $597 billion from big federal benefit programs like Medicare and Medicaid. He also proposed higher spending on infrastructure projects.

ROMNEY:   Obama's health care plan "puts in place an unelected board that's going to tell people ultimately what kind of treatments they can have. I don't like that idea."

THE FACTS:   Romney is referring to the Independent Payment Advisory Board, a panel of experts that would have the power to force Medicare cuts if costs rise beyond certain levels and Congress fails to act. But Obama's health care law explicitly prohibits the board from rationing care, shifting costs to retirees, restricting benefits or raising the Medicare eligibility age. So the board doesn't have the power to dictate to doctors what treatments they can prescribe.

Romney seems to be resurrecting the assertion that Obama's law would lead to rationing, made famous by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's widely debunked allegation that it would create "death panels."

The board has yet to be named, and its members would ultimately have to be confirmed by the Senate.   Health care inflation has been modest in the last few years, so cuts would be unlikely for most of the rest of this decade.

OBAMA:   "Over the last two years, health care premiums have gone up — it's true — but they've gone up slower than any time in the last 50 years. So we're already beginning to see progress.   In the meantime, folks out there with insurance, you're already getting a rebate."

THE FACTS: Not so, concerning premiums. Obama is mixing overall health care spending, which has been growing at historically low levels, and health insurance premiums, which have continued to rise faster than wages and overall economic growth.   Premiums for job-based family coverage have risen by nearly $2,400 since 2009 when Obama took office, according to the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation. In 2011, premiums jumped by 9 percent.   This year's 4 percent increase was more manageable, but the price tag for family coverage stands at $15,745, with employees paying more than $4,300 of that.

When it comes to insurance rebates under Obama's health care law, less than 10 percent of people with private health insurance are benefiting.

More than 160 million Americans under 65 have private insurance through their jobs and by buying their own policies. According to the administration, about 13 million people will benefit from rebates. And nearly two-thirds of that number will only be entitled to a share of it, since they are covered under job-based plans 
where their employer pays most of the premium and will get most of the rebate.

ROMNEY  on the failure of Obama's economic policy: "And the proof of that is 23 million people out of work.   The proof of that is 1 out of 6 people in poverty.   The proof of that is we've gone from 32 million on food stamps to 47 million on food stamps.    The proof of that is that 50 percent of college graduates this year can't find work."

THE FACTS:   The number of unemployed is 12.5 million, not 23 million. Romney was also counting 8 million people who are working part time but would like a full-time job and 2.6 million who have stopped looking for work, either because they are discouraged or because they are going back to school or for other reasons.

He got the figure closer to right earlier in the debate, leaving out only the part-timers when he said the U.S. has "23 million people out of work or stopped looking for work."   But he was wrong in asserting that Obama came into office "facing 23 million people out of work."   At the start of Obama's presidency, 12 million were out of work.

His claim that half of college graduates can't find work now also was problematic.   A Northeastern University analysis for The Associated Press found that a one-fourth of recent graduates were probably unemployed and another quarter were underemployed, which means working in jobs that didn't make full use of their skills or experience.

OBAMA:   It's important "that we take some of the money that we're saving as we wind down two wars to rebuild America."

THE FACTS:   This oft-repeated claim is based on a fiscal fiction. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were paid for mostly with borrowed money, so stopping them doesn't create a new pool of available cash that can be used for something else, like rebuilding America. It just slows down the government's borrowing.

ROMNEY:   "At the same time, gasoline prices have doubled under the president. Electric rates are up."

THE FACTS:   He's right that the average price has doubled, and a little more, since Obama was sworn in.   But presidents have almost no influence on gasoline prices, and certainly not in the near term.   Gasoline prices are set on financial exchanges around the world and are based on a host of factors, most importantly the price of crude oil used to make gasoline, the amount of finished gasoline ready to be shipped and the capacity of refiners to make enough to meet market demand.

Retail electricity prices have risen since Obama took office — barely.   They've grown by an average of less than 1 percent per year, less than the rate of inflation and slower than the historical growth in electricity prices.   The unexpectedly modest rise in electricity prices is because of the plummeting cost of natural gas, 
which is used to generate electricity.

OBAMA:   "Gov. Romney's central economic plan calls for a $5 trillion tax cut — on top of the extension of the Bush tax cuts, that's another trillion dollars — and $2 trillion in additional military spending that the military hasn't asked for. That's $8 trillion.   How we pay for that, reduce the deficit, and make the investments that we need to make, without dumping those costs onto middle-class Americans, I think is one of the central questions of this campaign."

THE FACTS:   Obama's claim that Romney wants to cut taxes by $5 trillion doesn't add up. Presumably, Obama was talking about the effect of Romney's tax plan over 10 years, which is common in Washington. But Obama's math doesn't take into account Romney's entire plan.

Romney proposes to reduce income tax rates by 20 percent and eliminate the estate tax and the alternative minimum tax.   The Tax Policy Center, a Washington research group, says that would reduce federal tax revenues by $465 billion in 2015, which would add up to about $5 trillion over 10 years.

However, Romney says he wants to pay for the tax cuts by reducing or eliminating tax credits, deductions and exemptions.   The goal is a simpler tax code that raises the same amount of money as the current system but does it in a more efficient manner.

The knock on Romney's plan, which Obama accurately cited, is that Romney has refused to say which tax breaks he would eliminate to pay for the lower rates.

ROMNEY:    "What would I cut from spending?   Well, first of all, I will eliminate all programs by this test, if they pass it:    Is the program so critical it's worth borrowing money from China to pay for it?"

THE FACTS:    China continues to be portrayed by Romney and many other Republicans as the poster child for runaway federal deficits.   It's true that China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, but it only represents about an 8 percent stake.   And China has recently been decreasing its holdings, according to the Treasury Department. 

Some two-thirds of the $16 trillion national debt is owed to the federal government, with the largest single stake the Federal Reserve, as well as American investors and the Social Security Trust Fund.

OBAMA:   "Independent studies looking at this said the only way to meet Gov. Romney's pledge of not ... adding to the deficit is by burdening middle-class families.   The average middle-class family with children would pay about $2,000 more."

THE FACTS:   That's just one scenario. Obama's claim relies on a study by the Tax Policy Center, a Washington research group.  The study, however, is more nuanced than Obama indicated.

The study concludes it would be impossible for Romney to meet all of his stated goals without shifting some of the tax burden from people who make more than $200,000 to people who make less.

In one scenario, the study says, Romney's proposal could result in a $2,000 tax increase for families who make less than $200,000 and have children.

Romney says his plan wouldn't raise taxes on anyone, and his campaign points to several studies by conservative think tanks that dispute the Tax Policy Center's findings.   Most of the conservative studies argue that Romney's tax plan would stimulate economic growth, generating additional tax revenue without shifting any of the tax burden to the middle class.   Congress, however, doesn't use those kinds of projections when it estimates the effect of tax legislation.

ROMNEY:   "Right now, the CBO says up to 20 million people will lose their insurance as Obamacare goes into effect next year."

THE FACTS:   Romney is making selective use of the Congressional Budget Office's March findings on how employers might adjust to the new health law.   The neutral Washington scorekeeper actually gave Congress four scenarios — ranging from a net increase in employer-provided coverage for 3 million people to the decrease of 20 million that Romney cited.

Here's why:   The law offers tax incentives for companies with more than 50 workers that provide coverage and penalties for those that don't.   The analysis says it's difficult to say how companies will behave, with some making a purely economic calculation and others concluding that continuing coverage may be essential to pleasing workers in a competitive environment.   "As a result, any projections of those effects are clearly quite uncertain," the study's authors concluded.

ROMNEY on cutting the deficit: "Obamacare's on my list. ... I'm going to stop the subsidy to PBS. ... I'll make government more efficient."

THE FACTS:   Romney has promised to balance the budget in eight years to 10 years, but he hasn't offered a complete plan.   Instead, he's promised a set of principles, some of which — like increasing Pentagon spending and restoring more than $700 billion in cuts that Democrats made in Medicare over the coming decade — work against his goal. He also has said he will not consider tax increases.

He pledges to shrink the government to 20 percent of the size of the economy, as opposed to more than 23 percent of gross domestic product now, by the end of his first term.   The Romney campaign estimates that would require cuts of $500 billion from the 2016 budget alone.   He also has pledged to cut tax rates by 20 percent, paying for them by eliminating tax breaks for the wealthiest and through economic growth.

To fulfill his promise, then, Romney would require cuts to other programs so deep — under one calculation requiring cutting many areas of the domestic budget by one-third within four years — that they could never get through Congress. Cuts to domestic agencies would have to be particularly deep.

But he's offered only a few modest examples of government programs he'd be willing to squeeze, like subsidies to PBS and Amtrak.   He does want to repeal Obama's big health care law, but that law is actually forecast to reduce the deficit.

ROMNEY:   "Simpson-Bowles, the president should have grabbed that."

OBAMA:   "That's what we've done, made some adjustments to it, and we're putting it before Congress right now, a $4 trillion plan."

THE FACTS:   At first, the president did largely ignore the recommendations made by his deficit commission headed by Democrat Erskine Bowles and Republican Alan Simpson. He later incorporated some of the proposals, largely the less controversial ones.   He did not endorse some of the politically troublesome recommendations, such as trimming popular tax deductions like the one for home mortgage interest.

Where It Goes Next

One presidential debate down, and two to go. Meanwhile, it's back to the campaign trail.

Somehow Obama has all the comeback lines today he lacked last night at the debate, good writers working over night.   Lets hope none of the yes men who sourround him are blowing smoke up his keester and telling him he did a good job, his performance was poor.

President Barack Obama will begin the day campaigning in Colorado and end it in Paul Ryan's home state of Wisconsin.  Many observers described his performance at Wednesday night's debate as subdued, and some basically labeled it a debacle.   Those same observers will be looking for whether there is a bounce back in Obama's step Thursday.

Mitt Romney, widely labeled the winner in Wednesday's showdown, will campaign with Ryan in Virginia. He'll also be watching to see if the debate puts a bounce in his standing in the polls.

Vice president Joe Biden will be in Iowa Thursday. He and Ryan meet on the debate stage next Thursday in Danville, Ky.

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The First 2012 Presidential Debate

Four years.  314 million citizens.  240 million voters.  50 states and one federal district.  538 Electoral College votes.

 This is the 2012 United States Presidential Election.

The stage is now set for the 57th quadrennial United States Presidential Election, to be held on November 6 this year. 

The election, which would also see the appointment of a Vice President, officially kicked off in January 2012 with nationwide state level primaries and caucuses, and after a grueling six months, the campaign season now enters into the final stretch.   The event will feature the incumbent, President Barack Obama for the Democrats, against an array of opponents which include, Gov. Mitt Romney for the Republican Party, Gov. Gary Johnson for the Libertarian Party, and a host of other third party, independent and mail-in candidates. 

With only a series of presidential and vice presidential debates to go before the big day, there is almost an electric feel in the air as the most expensive and bitter election in American history approaches its conclusion.

In the run-up to Election Day, we will keep you up-to-date on the latest developments involving each of the prospective candidates, with an in-depth look at their positions on current national issues as well as providing a comprehensive (and growing) biographical background that will hopefully assist you in evaluating their ability and philosophy to lead the nation.

1st Presidential Debate (October 3, 2012)
Magness Arena, University of Denver, 
Denver, Colorado
 Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. EST
 Focus: Domestic Policy
 Length: 90 minutes
 Moderator : Jim Lehrer
 Participants : President Barack Obama (D) and Governor Mitt Romney (R)

Subject to possible changes because of news developments, here are the topics for the October 3 debate, not necessarily to be brought up in this order:
 • The Economy - I 
• The Economy - II 
• The Economy - III 
• Health Care 
• The Role of Government 
• Governing 

2nd Presidential Debate (October 16, 2012, Hofstra University, NY)
3rd Presidential Debate (October 22, 2012, Lynn University, FL)
Vice Presidential Debate (October 11, 2012, Ctr. College, KY)

The 2012 Presidential Election will be held in 34 days, less than 5 weeks, on November 6th, Vote.  Here in Virginia you can still register to vote (October 15th end date).   Voting is important, DO IT.   The 1st Presidential Debate takes place tommorow  October 3, 2012, at the University of Denver, CO.   

You will see and hear from President Barack Obama and the Republican challenger Mitt Romney.   There are many others running for President that you won't hear from because generally speaking all the votes these others get in total will not cover the spread between the vote totals of the two Major candidates.   If the polls show you with a support level of 15% you will be included in the debates, lower levels of support an it's a No Go.

Lets look at some of the lower support candidates.  Independent and third-party candidates have always held a larger than life image, with Ross Perot and Ralph Nader being perfect recent examples. Independents are consistently at a disadvantage compared to their Republican and Democratic peers - from a financial, organizational and captive voter base perspective. 

Despite the fact that they have never mounted a credible challenge to candidates from the two major parties, their presence have the potential to affect the outcome of an election, as can be observed in the 2000 presidential election won by former President George W. Bush.   Democrats contend that Ralph Nader's presence took away some crucial votes from their candidate, Al Gore.

While there have been no notable national-level performances from any independent or third party candidates for as long as we care to remember, it bears reminding that our very first president, and one of our founding fathers, George Washington, ran on an independent ticket - and won!

2012 Constitution Party Virgil Goode Says He Can Win the Presidency.  More than half of the U.S. will see three names on their ballot on Nov. 6.  Virgil Goode, the former Virginia congressman, joins Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and could determine the outcome of the election being on the Virginia state ballot. 


2012 Libertarian Presidential Nominee, Former Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson 

The former Libertarian Republican Governor does not attend church, is pro-choice, anti-big government, pro-immigration, an outspoken critic of the war on drugs and favors legalizing marijuana. He led New Mexico for eight years, during which time the state saw no tax increase, and he vetoed over 750 separate pieces of legislation to keep the government from growing. However, his views on civil liberties, foreign policy and drugs may be difficult for many conservatives to reconcile with.


Declared 2012 PFP & Socialist Presidential Candidate, Political Activist Stewart Alexander 

In terms of hedging your bets, the 59-year old former radio talk show host has it down pat and probably created a little bit of history for himself in the process. Alexander has declared his candidacy for the Oval Office seat with two different political parties; the Socialist Party and the Peace and Freedom Party. This will be Alexander’s first attempt for the office after a failed Vice-Presidential bid in 2008.


Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Kathyern Lane 

The 45-year old Indiana-born mother of three believes in the need for the neutrality of a presidential candidate.    However, she realizes that under the current political system, the deck is stacked against any independent running for the office, which explains her reason for registering her candidacy under the Republican banner. Lane also believes that her status as a non-career politician, coupled with her first-hand experience in the private sector, makes her uniquely suited for the job.


Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Andy Martin 

The self-professed People’s Attorney General and Internet Powerhouse is famously remembered as the source of the chain mail and online reports questioning the citizenship of President Obama and the claim that he was a Muslim.   The 66-year old Martin filed his papers as a candidate for the next presidential election on Feb 8, and was quoted two weeks later saying, “Obama plays for keeps.    He plays rough, and that's the only way to beat him, and I'm the only one that is tough enough to do that." 


Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Jimmy McMillan 

The former mayoral, gubernatorial and senatorial candidate for the Rent Is Too Damn High Party announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on December last year. Explaining his decision not to contest the Democratic nomination, a party he was formerly registered with, karate expert McMillan was quoted as saying "the rent is too damn high."   The flamboyant Vietnam veteran also gave some words of advice to President Obama, “If you don’t do your job right, I am coming at you!"



Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate, U.S. Representative from the State of Texas Ron Paul 

The former medical doctor officially announced his candidacy for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination on May 13, 2011.   The 75-year old Texas Congressman will once again center his campaign on the theme of liberty, human rights and financial market reforms. With his small but vocal pockets of supporters spread all over the country, the Libertarian leaning Republican is set to be one of the most controversial characters on the campaign trail.


Declared 2012 Independent Presidential Candidate Stephen Rollins 

Stephen Rollins is an actor, writer, producer, director and business owner. The 37-year old, who once played for the New Jersey Rock n' Rollers in the RHI league, has a vision and a goal to restore our American Identity and return the country to its glorious roots. It is time to restructure our budget, tax code, education, and energy plan. It is time for someone with a bold plan and the will to fight for bold solutions. Let’s put party politics aside and do what’s right for this nation. Let’s restore our American Identity. It is time for Stephen Rollins.



Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Matt Snyder 

Matthew Bradley Snyder is a supporter of people, not parties.   He believes in the passion that stirs the heart of the common man.   It is not political ambition, but personal experience, that enflames that passion.   A president should exude it, not emulate it. Snyder is a true representative of the people.


Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate, Businessman Vern Wuensche 

Wuensche ran for President in 2008, garnering a tenth place finish in both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, despite spending only $36,000. In 100 days, the owner of Houston’s third oldest construction company, visited over 6,000 local businesses and churches in 242 towns in both states.   He believes that businesses survive and thrive chiefly through the caliber of those who runs them and thus,  these executives are perfectly qualified for a public office shorn of proven management experience



Former 2012 Libertarian Presidential Candidate, Former Chair of the Libertarian Party of Texas Roger Gary 

Roger Gary is a long-time Liberty activist and lifetime member of the Libertarian Party since 1977.   This 64-year old candidate resides in San Antonio, where he was elected and served 6 years as Director of the San Antonio River Authority.   His stance on major issues falls in line with the Libertarian Party Platform, such as 
civil liberties issues, non-intervention foreign policy, and smaller federal government. 



Former 2012 Libertarian Presidential Candidate, 3-Tour Combat Vet, Philosopher and Law Student RJ Harris 

RJ Harris is a 2012 Libertarian Party Presidential Candidate and a career Army National Guard Officer, aviator and 3-tour combat veteran. His 2010 Congressional Campaign was endorsed by Senator Rand Paul along with many prominent Libertarians and Conservatives both in the Libertarian and Republican Parties.   He has run a small business, worked in the FAA as an Air Traffic Controller, graduated from the University of Oklahoma with a degree in Philosophy, and he is a third-year J.D. Candidate at OU Law. RJ and his wife Jennifer of 20 years flourish with their five children in Norman, Oklahoma. 



Former 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate, Political Consultant & Gay Rights Activist Fred Karger 

Fred Karger, one of the shrewdest Republican political operators of the past three decades, announced the formation of his 2012 Exploratory Committee on July 18, 2010, making him the first ever openly gay aspirant for the presidency.   Despite being a lifelong Republican, the 61-year old Karger will be running on an independent ticket.   His campaign was hit with a sucker punch when he was locked out of the Carolina Republican Party Presidential Debate of May 5, with the organizers citing his low poll numbers as the reason. 



WITHDRAWN 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate, U.S. Representative from Michigan Thad McCotter 

The lead guitarist for the New Flying Squirrels, who incidentally is also a five-term Representative for Michigan’s 11th District, filed his papers for the 2012 US Presidential Elections with the FEC on July 1, 2011, and formally announce the news during the WAAM Freedom Festival at Whitmore Lake the following day.   His long-shot campaign for the GOP nomination never gained traction. On September 22, he ended his campaign and threw his endorsement to fellow candidate Mitt Romney. 



Former 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate, Career Flight Attendant Tom Miller 

Tom Miller feels that the country is being destroyed from within chiefly through a series of failed fiscal and immigration policies; a state of affair brought forth by an entrenched political elite. Miller sees himself as a representative of the people, as envisioned by the Founding Fathers themselves, and offers a solution-based approach to tackle the multitude of issues facing the nation. Ultimately, he hopes to re-empower the American people around the concept of small government. 


Former 2012 Libertarian Presidential Candidate, New York attorney and founder of the Paralegal Institute Carl Person 

Carl Person is a self-confessed high school dropout who would later go on to become a New York attorney and found the Paralegal Institute.    He finished third in voting in 2010 for New York Attorney General, a position he claims holds more power than the United States President.    A small business owner for nearly 20 years, he says he knows how to turn around the economy: privatization and reduction or elimination of business regulations. 


Former 2012 The Reform Party & Americans Elect Presidential Candidate, Former Governor of Louisiana Buddy Roemer 

After being away from politics for the last two decades, former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer announced in March last year the launch of his presidential exploratory committee. The 69-year old Democrat turned Republican has cited campaign finance reforms as one of the bulwarks of his platform and has imposed a $100 limit on individual contributions for his potential run. At a Tea Party rally in May 2011, he described the current national political system as disastrous and dysfunctional.

On February 23 this year, Roemer announced that he was ending his bid for the GOP nomination, claiming that the party “turned their backs on the democratic process by choosing to exclude a former Governor and Congressman” from all of the twenty three presidential debates held thus far (then). He subsequently declared his candidacy for the non-partisan Americans Elect, and the Reform Party.

Roemer announced the suspension of his presidential campaign on May 31, 2012, citing the lack of ballot access in all the 50 states as the primary consideration behind his decision. 


Former 2012 Democratic Presidential Candidate, Pro-life Activist Randall Terry 

At a glance, it may seem a little odd for a pro-life and anti-LGBT candidate to run for theDemocratic nomination.   A closer look however, would tell us that an estimated 30-40% of Democrats actually shares the 52-year old Terry’s views.   And for those who consider this as nothing more than a publicity stunt by an anti-abortionist radical, think again.   Randall Terry is planning to spend close to $3 million for a 30-second slot in the 2012 Super Bowl. 


Former 2012 Independent Presidential Candidate Danny Woodring 

Danny Earl Woodring, a 63-year-old Vietnam vet (DAV) and recipient of the Purple Heart, has joined the race for the presidency as a write-in independent conservative. The telco consultant is running his campaign exclusively from the internet and welcomes assistance from volunteers. The father of five and grandfather of eight currently resides in Palm Bay, Florida, with wife Ina. 


Former 2012 Libertarian Presidential Candidate, Libertarian Activist, R. Lee Wrights 

R. Lee Wrights officially announced his candidacy for the Libertarian 2012 presidential nomination race at the party’s annual state convention in Hickory, on April 15, 2011.   The 52-year old former sergeant with the U.S. Air Force proclaimed “I am still a warrior, but I am not at war”, a clear indication of his anti-war stance.   The Tar Heel Libertarian has been an ever-present name in the Libertarian circles for over a decade and once served as Vice-Chair of the Libertarian National Committee. 

Some states allow voters to choose NONE OF THE ABOVE as a selection on the ballot.

There are more candidates but they stand zero chance of wining or changing the outcome of the 2012 election, you haven't heard their names and most likely never will.   The names near the top of this list can have meaning in the 2012 election.  Virgil Goode and Gary Johnson are on the ballot in over 30 states and are write in candidates in a dozen more.   Some of these candidates have withdrawn or suspended their campaigns but their names remain on some ballots as a choice for voters.

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Obama's Chance of Being Re-elected Drops to 84.7 per cent.

By NATE SILVER

Oct. 2: Good News for Romney in National Polls, and Obama in Pennsylvania.  

Tuesday’s polls obeyed by largely the same themes as Monday’s. There were signs of tightening toward Mitt Romney in the national polls, but they were harder to discern in state surveys, which remained strong for President Obama.

In this case, however, the data from national polls won out in the forecast, with Mr. Obama’s odds of winning the Electoral College declining to 84.7 percent from 85.7 percent on Monday.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll published on Tuesday showed Mr. Obama with a 3-point lead among likely voters — down from a 5-point advantage in a poll they took just after the Democratic convention.   There are a few caveats here: Mr. Obama’s lead was 5 points with third-party candidates included on the ballot.   And his standing did not decline in the version of poll among registered voters. (Although that’s quite a mixed blessing for Mr. Obama because it implies that the gap between likely voters and registered voters has widened.)    But The Wall Street Journal and NBC News conduct top-notch surveys, so this is a decent data point for Mr. Romney.

And an unambiguously strong poll for Mr. Romney came late on Tuesday, when National Journal published a survey showing a 47-47 tie among likely voters.   The trendline is favorable for Mr. Romney in this poll as well, because its previous survey had shown Mr. Obama with a 7-point lead.

Mr. Romney also gained 2 points in the Rasmussen Reports national tracking poll and 1 point in the weekly national poll published by Public Policy Polling.    A contradictory data point was from the Gallup national tracking poll, which had Mr. Obama gaining 2 points.

Mr. Romney got several poor state surveys on Tuesday, however. Most notable were a Virginia poll, from Roanoke College, which gave Mr. Obama an 8-point lead among likely voters, and a Nevada poll, from the firm We Ask America, which gave him a 10.5-point lead in that state.

It’s hard to know whether this reflects an increasing gap between the swing states and the rest of the country, or, rather, is more of a statistical quirk.    Our research suggests that both state polls and national polls are useful in calibrating an overall estimate of the national popular vote.    In some years, like 1996 and 2000, state polls were generally highly accurate, while the national polls had a bias on one or another direction.

There is a slightly clearer trend in our “now-cast,” our estimate of what would happen in an election held today, where Mr. Obama’s projected margin of victory in the popular vote has fallen by 0.7 percentage points over the past two days.

If the race has tightened by more than that amount, we’re going to have to start to see more evidence of it in the state-by-state polls. But perhaps Mr. Romney has a bit of a tailwind heading into the first debate on Wednesday.

Pennsylvania Dropping From List of Swing States On Tuesday, a Pennsylvania judge delayed implementation of provisions of a new voter identification law, essentially neutering its impact for this November’s elections.

Based on academic studies of the effect of changes to voter ID laws, we had estimated that the law would have reduced turnout in Pennsylvania by 2 percent and reduced President Obama’s margin relative to Mitt Romney by about 1 percentage point. So while that isn’t a huge effect, it is now one less thing for Mr. Obama to worry 

about.

It is also one less reason for Mr. Romney to compete in Pennsylvania, where his standing was already very tenuous.   As of Tuesday, the forecast model — which incorporated a modest adjustment for the voter ID law that has now been reversed — gives Mr. Obama a 97.7 percent of winning the state’s electoral votes on Nov. 6.

Part of the reason for the model’s certainly about the outcome in Pennsylvania is the stability of the data there.   Mr. Obama has led in 34 consecutive polls of Pennsylvania, a streak that dates to early February.

This may not be a coincidence. Our research on individual-level voter demographics from the 2008 exit polls suggests that Pennsylvania is a relatively  “inelastic”  state, meaning that it is hard to move the numbers there.    Mr. Obama can expect to rack up huge margins in the urban centers of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, while Mr. Romney can expect to win almost all of the counties in the central part of the state (save for the occasional college town).

There are certainly some swing voters in the state, as in the Philadelphia suburbs.   But elections in Pennsylvania generally come down to turning out the respective party bases — and it looks, simply, as if Mr. Obama’s base is a little larger than Mr. Romney’s there.   Now he’ll have a bit less trouble getting his voters to cast their ballots.

Pennsylvania has steadily been falling on our list of tipping point states — those that are most likely to provide the decisive electoral vote in the event of a close election — and now ranks in ninth position.

Its rank is even lower, 13th, on a related list, our return on investment index, which also considers how expensive it is to compete in a state based on its population.

The return on investment index can also be interpreted as the likelihood that an individual voter in a state would determine the Electoral College winner with her vote.    In Pennsylvania, that index is 0.3 — meaning that a vote there is almost 30 times less important than in neighboring Ohio, where the index is 8.4 instead.

According to National Journal, Mr. Romney’s campaign has not spent a single dollar on advertising in Pennsylvania since May 1; outside groups that support Mr. Romney ceased their advertising there in August.

It’s hard to know whether Mr. Romney’s decision to avoid spending money in Pennsylvania should now be thought of as being prescient.

On the one hand, it may be better to pull out of a state early than to do so late, after having spent a bunch of money there.    On the other hand, Mr. Obama’s campaign ceased its advertising expenditures in Pennsylvania in July, no longer having the need to call Mr. Romney’s bluff — and Mr. Romney’s lackluster effort in Pennsylvania has put him in a very defensive Electoral College posture throughout the campaign.

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