Kaine Explains Why Deeds Strategy Failed

Tim Kaine Explains Why The Creigh Deeds Strategy Failed And Warns Blue Dogs That Deeds' Fate Awaits Them.

To be kind, Obama's DNC head, Tim Kaine, isn't exactly from the Howard Dean mold and doesn't quite represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. Generally speaking, the outgoing governor of Virginia represents the Establishment or, in Paul Krugman's words about his kind of Democrats, "corporate tools, defending special interests." What he has in common with Dean, though, is that he's smart and he likes to win. There aren't many people better positioned to analyze the spectacular defeat earlier this month of conservative Democrat Creigh Deeds to succeed him in the governor's mansion. Deeds turned Obama's startling 6-point win in Virginia last year into an 18-point ass-whooping this year. How did he do what Republicans haven't been able to accomplish?

Kaine admitted Deeds was "unable to energize his base, falling into a Republican trap that led him to shrink from the president and his policies," exactly what Blue Dogs and cowardly conservative Democrats are doing across the country, where quasi-Democrats like John Barrow (Blue Dog-GA), Parker Griffith (Blue Dog-AL), Travis Childers (Blue Dog-MS), Glenn Nye (Blue Dog-VA), Bobby Bright (Blue Dog-AL), Frank Kratovil (Blue Dog-MD), Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) and John Adler (D-NJ) are preparing to cede their seats to Republicans by re-enacting Deeds' catastrophic campaign strategy.

In a meeting with editors and reporters of the Washington Post, Kaine (D) said Deeds squandered the opportunity to sell his own appealing life story as a guy who had overcome long odds and economic disadvantage. Instead, the rural state senator took the advice of campaign consultants who wrongly assumed Deeds's Democratic support was solid and believed he should instead focus on wooing independents by attacking Republican Robert F. McDonnell.

"After the [June] primary was done, his advisers basically said, distance yourself from the president. We think we have our base locked down, we've got to win independents. And we're going to win by being negative about McDonnell," Kaine said. "That was the basic strategy they pursued, despite some significant urging to the contrary."

Asked about his own advice to Deeds, who lost to McDonnell on Nov. 3 by 17 percentage points, Kaine said: "I'd rather not talk about my personal conversations. But what I will say is that I always believed from the very beginning that the paradigm in Virginia had changed and that the way to win the race was to energize voters who had demonstrated they would vote for Democrats. That I did advise him very, very early. I advised all the candidates, prior to the primary, that was a path to victory."

When Deeds declared he would opt out of the public option-- the public option being a winner nationally and an overwhelming winner among Democrats-- he opted out of any chance for a victory. What Deeds did was completely de-incentivize the Democratic base to turn out-- why bother if he's just going to be the same piece of crap as the Republican?-- and not only doomed his own chances but killed Democrats in state legislative races where a strong turnout from the base was essential.

Now, look at that motley list of supposed Democrats above. Let's start with their overall voting records this session. These are the ProgressivePunch rankings of substantive votes this year:

John Barrow (Blue Dog-GA)- 29.41

Parker Griffith (Blue Dog-AL)- 17.65, worse than 3 conservative Republicans!

Travis Childers (Blue Dog-MS)- 25.29

Glenn Nye (Blue Dog-VA)- 25.49

Bobby Bright (Blue Dog-AL)- 23.53

Frank Kratovil (Blue Dog-MD)- 29.41

Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ)- 34.00

John Adler (D-NJ)- 38.00

All of these "Democrats" vote far more frequently with the Republicans than they do with their fellow Democrats-- especially on the important issues that are meaningful to people's lives. Remember Krugman's words. He was talking about this crew: "corporate tools, defending special interests." It describes each and every one of them. On top of that, let's take a look at how they voted on two issues that are of the utmost importance to the Democratic base-- the ones who propelled Obama to victory, gave both houses of Congress to the Democrats, and are essential if any of these galoots hopes to not repeat what happened to Creigh Deeds and last year's most pathetic losers, Don Cazayoux (Blue Dog-LA) and Nick Lampson (Blue Dog-TX). Both votes came up 2 weeks ago on the same extraordinary Saturday session, one to make it more difficult for women to exercise their constitutional right to reproductive choice and the other for the highly popular health care reform bill.

Among the 64 Democrats voting against women were Boehner Boys Barrow, Bright, Childers, and Griffith. And among the 39 Democrats to cross the aisle and vote with Republicans against health care reform were Adler, an egregious Insurance Industry shill, Barrow, Bright, Childers, Griffith, Kratovil, and Nye. Although these corrupt members are already looking forward to their lives as K Street lobbyists, Kaine is hoping more reasonable conservative Democrats-- like himself-- will take the right lesson from Deeds' massacre and "be more supportive of Obama's policies, not less, as they contemplate their reelection efforts next year."

Kaine said the key to victory for Democrats in a highly competitive Virginia is recognizing that party members need not be "apologetic" about their affiliation to find success. He noted that about 200,000 more people voted in the Democratic primary for president on a frigid February day in 2008 than cast ballots for Deeds this year, and said McDonnell successfully spooked Deeds by suggesting that Virginians had grown anxious about the Democratic agenda.

"I think the issue of being nervous about the Virginia electorate was overdone and I think Creigh did exactly what the McDonnell campaign hoped he would do, which was distance himself from the president and national issues," Kaine said.

We are running an ongoing campaign to replace Blue Dogs with real Democrats, and we are already in gear with Regina Thomas and Marcy Winograd, respectively running against John Barrow and Jane Harman. Are these the kinds of people-- regardless of what party they happen to claim they're in-- you want to see in leadership positions in our country?

Deeds did much poorer than his Democratic predecessors, outgoing Gov. Tim Kaine and former Gov. (now Sen.) Mark Warner, in most of the state. Up front no one would have dreamed such a poor campaign could be waged. Even a sensible candidate with no money would have done better. Deeds had Millions of dollars to throw away, Millions of dollars and not one appealing idea.

Democrats should be concerned about low turnout of core constituencies including minorities and younger voters (these groups often vote at much lower rates in off-year elections). They also must worry about independent white voters, especially men, who had helped Democrats retake the House and Senate in 2006 and had given Obama a decent proportion of support in 2008 but largely abandoned Deeds in areas like Fairfax and Loudon counties in Northern Virginia.

Where Deeds got absolutely crushed, though, was in Appalachian Virginia -- the western and southwestern part of the state. An area called Deeds Country by the Deeds campaign, What a Joke? This should concern national Democrats for three reasons. First, Deeds is an Appalachian Virginian himself, yet outside of his home base of Bath County and next-door Alleghany County, he was beaten silly in his home region, losing by proportions of 2-1 and 3-1 in many counties.