Suprises For The Mid Terms

Everyone knows the Democratic Party is unpopular and that it stands to lose a substantial number of House and Senate seats come November, perhaps even control of one or both chambers.


But in fact, the public thinks worse of the Republicans, according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.    The poll shows 24 percent of Americans view the Republican Party positively, an all-time low in the poll’s 21-year history.    That compares with a 33 percent positive rating for the Democrats.     The negative ratings are comparable – 46 percent unfavorable for the Republicans, 44 percent for the Democrats.


Those numbers do not foretell major losses for the Republican incumbents.     Generalized unhappiness with the GOP does not necessarily mean discontent with one’s member of Congress.     Most important, the Democrats control both Congress and the White House, and voters will take out their frustration over the state of the country on them. In particular, a well-documented enthusiasm gap, demonstrated most recently in Tuesday’s higher turnout numbers for Republicans over Democrats in the primaries, means GOP voters are more motivated to go out and vote against Democrats than Democrats are to support their own party.


The 'short fuse' electorate


But these numbers present a warning to Republicans:  Voters may support them in November and give them big gains, but if they don’t deliver, they could be in trouble.    This is particularly so if the Republicans take over at least the House and don’t accomplish much, they could be short-timers.     After all, it’s only been three-plus years since the Democrats took over both houses of Congress, and the pendulum has already swung sharply in the opposite direction.


“The public’s on a really short fuse nowadays,” says Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn.    “And it’s because times are bad. We’re at war, the economy is terrible.”


Democratic pollster Peter Hart, codirector of the NBC/WSJ poll, calls it a “JetBlue election.”     “Everyone is frustrated,” Mr. Hart told NBC.    “And everyone is headed for the emergency exit.”


A GOP campaign agenda: Does it matter?


Congressional Republicans have yet to come out with a policy agenda to run on in the November midterms, but they are promising to do so next month.     For now, they’re on a listening tour.


But Mr. Schier isn’t sure a 2010 version of the Contract With America – the GOP’s list of 10 action items released in the run-up to their successful 1994 takeover of Congress – will have much lasting impact for the Republicans.     Even in 1994, most voters weren’t aware of the Contract when they handed the Republicans a 53-seat gain and control of the House.


An agenda for 2010 “could help them short-term in the cycle, if the specifics are well received, and certain candidates use them as a message in certain districts successfully,” says Schier.     But, he adds, there’s little Republicans can do about their brand until they have a presidential candidate.


In a bit of hopeful news for the Democrats, the NBC/WSJ poll shows that the public generically prefers congressional Republicans over Democrats only in the South, where it’s 52 percent to 31 percent. In the Northeast, the Democrats lead 55-30.     In the Midwest, they lead 49-38.     And in the West, they’re up by one, 44-43.


“Yet do keep this caveat in mind,” says the analysis on MSNBC.com.     “Many of the congressional districts Republicans are targeting outside of the South resemble some of those Southern districts they're hoping to win back in November – where you have whiter and older voters.”

The conventional wisdom on the midterm elections has been that the House is vulnerable to a Republican takeover, but the Senate?     Not so much.


It’s still true that the Republicans have an easier path to a House takeover, with so many Democratic-held seats in play.     But with strong challenges emerging against two Senate Democratic incumbents previously seen as safe – Patty Murray of Washington and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin – and the national atmospherics heavily favoring the Republicans,  Democrats increasingly have their work cut out for them to save control even of the Senate.


Add to that the possibility that one or even two senators currently in the Democratic column could flip to the Republican side if the GOP gets close to a takeover on Nov. 2.     Let’s say the Republicans make a net gain of nine seats – one short of the 10 they need for a majority.      Speculation will then immediately turn to Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska, a conservative Democrat from a red state who sometimes sides with the Republicans.     Less likely but still conceivable as a party-switcher is Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats but is seen by some Democrats as not completely with the team.

If the Republicans get close to a majority and offer one or both of these senators a committee chairmanship, that could sweeten the deal.


“So you’ve got two on the Democratic side you’ve got to worry about,” says Peter Fenn, a Democratic communications strategist.


Senator Lieberman already chairs a committee for the Democrats – Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs – but in politics, there are no guarantees.      The Democrats still have to wonder if they might lose him under certain circumstances.


What’s more, it’s looking increasingly possible, though still not likely, that the Republicans could take over the Senate without the help of party-switchers.     In the event of a tsunami-size wave of voter discontent, the Democrats’ large majorities in both houses – 59 to 41 in the Senate, 256 to 178 (and one vacancy) in the House – could easily be swept away.     Typically, Senate races are not as vulnerable to the national mood as House races, but in this cycle, Republicans believe they could be.


A survey by Republican pollster Glen Bolger released Tuesday shows that in 13 states with competitive Senate races, the Republican candidates are leading on average by a margin of 47 to 39 percent.    Candidates’ names were used in the poll (except in the few states with primaries pending), so it was not a generic test. In the eight seats currently held by Democrats – Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Washington –the Republican leads by an average of seven percentage points.      In the five Republican seats – Florida, Kentucky,


Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio – the GOP lead is eight points.


The poll was commissioned by American Crossroads, an outside Republican group that is fundraising to help GOP candidates.


“Senate races across the country appear to be drawn into the same national vortex that is impacting House races, as an earlier battleground survey that was conducted by Glen Bolger and others demonstrated fairly clearly back in June,” Steven Law, president of American Crossroads, said in a conference call Tuesday.


With 1,300 voters surveyed across 13 states, the sample size was not large enough for individual state results to hold credibility.     But the larger trend in favor of Republicans taken as a whole is unmistakable.     Independents are backing Republicans in these 13 states by a margin of 47 to 25 percent.     And in a sign of a significant enthusiasm gap, “high-intensity voters” support Republicans by a 52-to-36 margin.


Still, there are almost three months to go before Election Day.     The national mood is not likely to change, but developments could alter the dynamic in individual races.      And Republicans are guarded about not raising expectations to unreasonably high levels, in which anything less than a full takeover of both houses of Congress is seen as a failure.


“A Senate takeover is just a possibility, it’s not a given,” said Mr. Law.

By Linda Feldmann