Four years. 314 million citizens. 240 million voters. 50 states and one federal district. 538 Electoral College votes.
This is the 2012 United States Presidential Election.
The stage is now set for the 57th quadrennial United States Presidential Election, to be held on November 6 this year.
The election, which would also see the appointment of a Vice President, officially kicked off in January 2012 with nationwide state level primaries and caucuses, and after a grueling six months, the campaign season now enters into the final stretch. The event will feature the incumbent, President Barack Obama for the Democrats, against an array of opponents which include, Gov. Mitt Romney for the Republican Party, Gov. Gary Johnson for the Libertarian Party, and a host of other third party, independent and mail-in candidates.
With only a series of presidential and vice presidential debates to go before the big day, there is almost an electric feel in the air as the most expensive and bitter election in American history approaches its conclusion.
In the run-up to Election Day, we will keep you up-to-date on the latest developments involving each of the prospective candidates, with an in-depth look at their positions on current national issues as well as providing a comprehensive (and growing) biographical background that will hopefully assist you in evaluating their ability and philosophy to lead the nation.
1st Presidential Debate (October 3, 2012)
Magness Arena, University of Denver,
Denver, Colorado
Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. EST
Focus: Domestic Policy
Length: 90 minutes
Moderator : Jim Lehrer
Participants : President Barack Obama (D) and Governor Mitt Romney (R)
Subject to possible changes because of news developments, here are the topics for the October 3 debate, not necessarily to be brought up in this order:
• The Economy - I
• The Economy - II
• The Economy - III
• Health Care
• The Role of Government
• Governing
2nd Presidential Debate (October 16, 2012, Hofstra University, NY)
3rd Presidential Debate (October 22, 2012, Lynn University, FL)
Vice Presidential Debate (October 11, 2012, Ctr. College, KY)
The 2012 Presidential Election will be held in 34 days, less than 5 weeks, on November 6th, Vote. Here in Virginia you can still register to vote (October 15th end date). Voting is important, DO IT. The 1st Presidential Debate takes place tommorow October 3, 2012, at the University of Denver, CO.
You will see and hear from President Barack Obama and the Republican challenger Mitt Romney. There are many others running for President that you won't hear from because generally speaking all the votes these others get in total will not cover the spread between the vote totals of the two Major candidates. If the polls show you with a support level of 15% you will be included in the debates, lower levels of support an it's a No Go.
Lets look at some of the lower support candidates. Independent and third-party candidates have always held a larger than life image, with Ross Perot and Ralph Nader being perfect recent examples. Independents are consistently at a disadvantage compared to their Republican and Democratic peers - from a financial, organizational and captive voter base perspective.
Despite the fact that they have never mounted a credible challenge to candidates from the two major parties, their presence have the potential to affect the outcome of an election, as can be observed in the 2000 presidential election won by former President George W. Bush. Democrats contend that Ralph Nader's presence took away some crucial votes from their candidate, Al Gore.
While there have been no notable national-level performances from any independent or third party candidates for as long as we care to remember, it bears reminding that our very first president, and one of our founding fathers, George Washington, ran on an independent ticket - and won!
2012 Constitution Party Virgil Goode Says He Can Win the Presidency. More than half of the U.S. will see three names on their ballot on Nov. 6. Virgil Goode, the former Virginia congressman, joins Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and could determine the outcome of the election being on the Virginia state ballot.
2012 Libertarian Presidential Nominee, Former Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson
The former Libertarian Republican Governor does not attend church, is pro-choice, anti-big government, pro-immigration, an outspoken critic of the war on drugs and favors legalizing marijuana. He led New Mexico for eight years, during which time the state saw no tax increase, and he vetoed over 750 separate pieces of legislation to keep the government from growing. However, his views on civil liberties, foreign policy and drugs may be difficult for many conservatives to reconcile with.
Declared 2012 PFP & Socialist Presidential Candidate, Political Activist Stewart Alexander
In terms of hedging your bets, the 59-year old former radio talk show host has it down pat and probably created a little bit of history for himself in the process. Alexander has declared his candidacy for the Oval Office seat with two different political parties; the Socialist Party and the Peace and Freedom Party. This will be Alexander’s first attempt for the office after a failed Vice-Presidential bid in 2008.
Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Kathyern Lane
The 45-year old Indiana-born mother of three believes in the need for the neutrality of a presidential candidate. However, she realizes that under the current political system, the deck is stacked against any independent running for the office, which explains her reason for registering her candidacy under the Republican banner. Lane also believes that her status as a non-career politician, coupled with her first-hand experience in the private sector, makes her uniquely suited for the job.
Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Andy Martin
The self-professed People’s Attorney General and Internet Powerhouse is famously remembered as the source of the chain mail and online reports questioning the citizenship of President Obama and the claim that he was a Muslim. The 66-year old Martin filed his papers as a candidate for the next presidential election on Feb 8, and was quoted two weeks later saying, “Obama plays for keeps. He plays rough, and that's the only way to beat him, and I'm the only one that is tough enough to do that."
Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Jimmy McMillan
The former mayoral, gubernatorial and senatorial candidate for the Rent Is Too Damn High Party announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on December last year. Explaining his decision not to contest the Democratic nomination, a party he was formerly registered with, karate expert McMillan was quoted as saying "the rent is too damn high." The flamboyant Vietnam veteran also gave some words of advice to President Obama, “If you don’t do your job right, I am coming at you!"
Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate, U.S. Representative from the State of Texas Ron Paul
The former medical doctor officially announced his candidacy for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination on May 13, 2011. The 75-year old Texas Congressman will once again center his campaign on the theme of liberty, human rights and financial market reforms. With his small but vocal pockets of supporters spread all over the country, the Libertarian leaning Republican is set to be one of the most controversial characters on the campaign trail.
Declared 2012 Independent Presidential Candidate Stephen Rollins
Stephen Rollins is an actor, writer, producer, director and business owner. The 37-year old, who once played for the New Jersey Rock n' Rollers in the RHI league, has a vision and a goal to restore our American Identity and return the country to its glorious roots. It is time to restructure our budget, tax code, education, and energy plan. It is time for someone with a bold plan and the will to fight for bold solutions. Let’s put party politics aside and do what’s right for this nation. Let’s restore our American Identity. It is time for Stephen Rollins.
Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Matt Snyder
Matthew Bradley Snyder is a supporter of people, not parties. He believes in the passion that stirs the heart of the common man. It is not political ambition, but personal experience, that enflames that passion. A president should exude it, not emulate it. Snyder is a true representative of the people.
Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate, Businessman Vern Wuensche
Wuensche ran for President in 2008, garnering a tenth place finish in both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, despite spending only $36,000. In 100 days, the owner of Houston’s third oldest construction company, visited over 6,000 local businesses and churches in 242 towns in both states. He believes that businesses survive and thrive chiefly through the caliber of those who runs them and thus, these executives are perfectly qualified for a public office shorn of proven management experience
Former 2012 Libertarian Presidential Candidate, Former Chair of the Libertarian Party of Texas Roger Gary
Roger Gary is a long-time Liberty activist and lifetime member of the Libertarian Party since 1977. This 64-year old candidate resides in San Antonio, where he was elected and served 6 years as Director of the San Antonio River Authority. His stance on major issues falls in line with the Libertarian Party Platform, such as
civil liberties issues, non-intervention foreign policy, and smaller federal government.
Former 2012 Libertarian Presidential Candidate, 3-Tour Combat Vet, Philosopher and Law Student RJ Harris
RJ Harris is a 2012 Libertarian Party Presidential Candidate and a career Army National Guard Officer, aviator and 3-tour combat veteran. His 2010 Congressional Campaign was endorsed by Senator Rand Paul along with many prominent Libertarians and Conservatives both in the Libertarian and Republican Parties. He has run a small business, worked in the FAA as an Air Traffic Controller, graduated from the University of Oklahoma with a degree in Philosophy, and he is a third-year J.D. Candidate at OU Law. RJ and his wife Jennifer of 20 years flourish with their five children in Norman, Oklahoma.
Former 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate, Political Consultant & Gay Rights Activist Fred Karger
Fred Karger, one of the shrewdest Republican political operators of the past three decades, announced the formation of his 2012 Exploratory Committee on July 18, 2010, making him the first ever openly gay aspirant for the presidency. Despite being a lifelong Republican, the 61-year old Karger will be running on an independent ticket. His campaign was hit with a sucker punch when he was locked out of the Carolina Republican Party Presidential Debate of May 5, with the organizers citing his low poll numbers as the reason.
WITHDRAWN 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate, U.S. Representative from Michigan Thad McCotter
The lead guitarist for the New Flying Squirrels, who incidentally is also a five-term Representative for Michigan’s 11th District, filed his papers for the 2012 US Presidential Elections with the FEC on July 1, 2011, and formally announce the news during the WAAM Freedom Festival at Whitmore Lake the following day. His long-shot campaign for the GOP nomination never gained traction. On September 22, he ended his campaign and threw his endorsement to fellow candidate Mitt Romney.
Former 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate, Career Flight Attendant Tom Miller
Tom Miller feels that the country is being destroyed from within chiefly through a series of failed fiscal and immigration policies; a state of affair brought forth by an entrenched political elite. Miller sees himself as a representative of the people, as envisioned by the Founding Fathers themselves, and offers a solution-based approach to tackle the multitude of issues facing the nation. Ultimately, he hopes to re-empower the American people around the concept of small government.
Former 2012 Libertarian Presidential Candidate, New York attorney and founder of the Paralegal Institute Carl Person
Carl Person is a self-confessed high school dropout who would later go on to become a New York attorney and found the Paralegal Institute. He finished third in voting in 2010 for New York Attorney General, a position he claims holds more power than the United States President. A small business owner for nearly 20 years, he says he knows how to turn around the economy: privatization and reduction or elimination of business regulations.
Former 2012 The Reform Party & Americans Elect Presidential Candidate, Former Governor of Louisiana Buddy Roemer
After being away from politics for the last two decades, former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer announced in March last year the launch of his presidential exploratory committee. The 69-year old Democrat turned Republican has cited campaign finance reforms as one of the bulwarks of his platform and has imposed a $100 limit on individual contributions for his potential run. At a Tea Party rally in May 2011, he described the current national political system as disastrous and dysfunctional.
On February 23 this year, Roemer announced that he was ending his bid for the GOP nomination, claiming that the party “turned their backs on the democratic process by choosing to exclude a former Governor and Congressman” from all of the twenty three presidential debates held thus far (then). He subsequently declared his candidacy for the non-partisan Americans Elect, and the Reform Party.
Roemer announced the suspension of his presidential campaign on May 31, 2012, citing the lack of ballot access in all the 50 states as the primary consideration behind his decision.
Former 2012 Democratic Presidential Candidate, Pro-life Activist Randall Terry
At a glance, it may seem a little odd for a pro-life and anti-LGBT candidate to run for theDemocratic nomination. A closer look however, would tell us that an estimated 30-40% of Democrats actually shares the 52-year old Terry’s views. And for those who consider this as nothing more than a publicity stunt by an anti-abortionist radical, think again. Randall Terry is planning to spend close to $3 million for a 30-second slot in the 2012 Super Bowl.
Former 2012 Independent Presidential Candidate Danny Woodring
Danny Earl Woodring, a 63-year-old Vietnam vet (DAV) and recipient of the Purple Heart, has joined the race for the presidency as a write-in independent conservative. The telco consultant is running his campaign exclusively from the internet and welcomes assistance from volunteers. The father of five and grandfather of eight currently resides in Palm Bay, Florida, with wife Ina.
Former 2012 Libertarian Presidential Candidate, Libertarian Activist, R. Lee Wrights
R. Lee Wrights officially announced his candidacy for the Libertarian 2012 presidential nomination race at the party’s annual state convention in Hickory, on April 15, 2011. The 52-year old former sergeant with the U.S. Air Force proclaimed “I am still a warrior, but I am not at war”, a clear indication of his anti-war stance. The Tar Heel Libertarian has been an ever-present name in the Libertarian circles for over a decade and once served as Vice-Chair of the Libertarian National Committee.
Some states allow voters to choose NONE OF THE ABOVE as a selection on the ballot.
There are more candidates but they stand zero chance of wining or changing the outcome of the 2012 election, you haven't heard their names and most likely never will. The names near the top of this list can have meaning in the 2012 election. Virgil Goode and Gary Johnson are on the ballot in over 30 states and are write in candidates in a dozen more. Some of these candidates have withdrawn or suspended their campaigns but their names remain on some ballots as a choice for voters.
Headlines
USA NEWS WORLD NEWS POLITICAL SMALL BUSINESS PERSONAL FINANCE EDUCATION ENTERTAINMENT
Obama's Chance of Being Re-elected Drops to 84.7 per cent.
By NATE SILVER
Oct. 2: Good News for Romney in National Polls, and Obama in Pennsylvania.
Tuesday’s polls obeyed by largely the same themes as Monday’s. There were signs of tightening toward Mitt Romney in the national polls, but they were harder to discern in state surveys, which remained strong for President Obama.
In this case, however, the data from national polls won out in the forecast, with Mr. Obama’s odds of winning the Electoral College declining to 84.7 percent from 85.7 percent on Monday.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll published on Tuesday showed Mr. Obama with a 3-point lead among likely voters — down from a 5-point advantage in a poll they took just after the Democratic convention. There are a few caveats here: Mr. Obama’s lead was 5 points with third-party candidates included on the ballot. And his standing did not decline in the version of poll among registered voters. (Although that’s quite a mixed blessing for Mr. Obama because it implies that the gap between likely voters and registered voters has widened.) But The Wall Street Journal and NBC News conduct top-notch surveys, so this is a decent data point for Mr. Romney.
And an unambiguously strong poll for Mr. Romney came late on Tuesday, when National Journal published a survey showing a 47-47 tie among likely voters. The trendline is favorable for Mr. Romney in this poll as well, because its previous survey had shown Mr. Obama with a 7-point lead.
Mr. Romney also gained 2 points in the Rasmussen Reports national tracking poll and 1 point in the weekly national poll published by Public Policy Polling. A contradictory data point was from the Gallup national tracking poll, which had Mr. Obama gaining 2 points.
Mr. Romney got several poor state surveys on Tuesday, however. Most notable were a Virginia poll, from Roanoke College, which gave Mr. Obama an 8-point lead among likely voters, and a Nevada poll, from the firm We Ask America, which gave him a 10.5-point lead in that state.
It’s hard to know whether this reflects an increasing gap between the swing states and the rest of the country, or, rather, is more of a statistical quirk. Our research suggests that both state polls and national polls are useful in calibrating an overall estimate of the national popular vote. In some years, like 1996 and 2000, state polls were generally highly accurate, while the national polls had a bias on one or another direction.
There is a slightly clearer trend in our “now-cast,” our estimate of what would happen in an election held today, where Mr. Obama’s projected margin of victory in the popular vote has fallen by 0.7 percentage points over the past two days.
If the race has tightened by more than that amount, we’re going to have to start to see more evidence of it in the state-by-state polls. But perhaps Mr. Romney has a bit of a tailwind heading into the first debate on Wednesday.
Pennsylvania Dropping From List of Swing States On Tuesday, a Pennsylvania judge delayed implementation of provisions of a new voter identification law, essentially neutering its impact for this November’s elections.
Based on academic studies of the effect of changes to voter ID laws, we had estimated that the law would have reduced turnout in Pennsylvania by 2 percent and reduced President Obama’s margin relative to Mitt Romney by about 1 percentage point. So while that isn’t a huge effect, it is now one less thing for Mr. Obama to worry
about.
It is also one less reason for Mr. Romney to compete in Pennsylvania, where his standing was already very tenuous. As of Tuesday, the forecast model — which incorporated a modest adjustment for the voter ID law that has now been reversed — gives Mr. Obama a 97.7 percent of winning the state’s electoral votes on Nov. 6.
Part of the reason for the model’s certainly about the outcome in Pennsylvania is the stability of the data there. Mr. Obama has led in 34 consecutive polls of Pennsylvania, a streak that dates to early February.
This may not be a coincidence. Our research on individual-level voter demographics from the 2008 exit polls suggests that Pennsylvania is a relatively “inelastic” state, meaning that it is hard to move the numbers there. Mr. Obama can expect to rack up huge margins in the urban centers of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, while Mr. Romney can expect to win almost all of the counties in the central part of the state (save for the occasional college town).
There are certainly some swing voters in the state, as in the Philadelphia suburbs. But elections in Pennsylvania generally come down to turning out the respective party bases — and it looks, simply, as if Mr. Obama’s base is a little larger than Mr. Romney’s there. Now he’ll have a bit less trouble getting his voters to cast their ballots.
Pennsylvania has steadily been falling on our list of tipping point states — those that are most likely to provide the decisive electoral vote in the event of a close election — and now ranks in ninth position.
Its rank is even lower, 13th, on a related list, our return on investment index, which also considers how expensive it is to compete in a state based on its population.
The return on investment index can also be interpreted as the likelihood that an individual voter in a state would determine the Electoral College winner with her vote. In Pennsylvania, that index is 0.3 — meaning that a vote there is almost 30 times less important than in neighboring Ohio, where the index is 8.4 instead.
According to National Journal, Mr. Romney’s campaign has not spent a single dollar on advertising in Pennsylvania since May 1; outside groups that support Mr. Romney ceased their advertising there in August.
It’s hard to know whether Mr. Romney’s decision to avoid spending money in Pennsylvania should now be thought of as being prescient.
On the one hand, it may be better to pull out of a state early than to do so late, after having spent a bunch of money there. On the other hand, Mr. Obama’s campaign ceased its advertising expenditures in Pennsylvania in July, no longer having the need to call Mr. Romney’s bluff — and Mr. Romney’s lackluster effort in Pennsylvania has put him in a very defensive Electoral College posture throughout the campaign.
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