Election 2009, 3 Weeks Out

McDonnell 50%, Deeds 43%

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Released at 1pm

Republican Robert F. McDonnell still holds a seven-point lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race for Virginia governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McDonnell ahead of Deeds 50% to 43%. Six percent (6%) of Virginia voters remain undecided. The survey was taken Monday night as the two candidates clashed in their next-to-last debate of the contest.

McDonnell’s lead is roughly the same as two weeks ago when he was ahead of Deeds 51% to 42%. After closing to essentially a toss-up in mid-September, the previous survey found the contest back to where it was in early September, when the GOP hopeful held a nine-point advantage. In August, McDonnell was up by eight.

All of those figures include “leaners.” Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.

McDonnell holds a seven-point lead whether “leaners” are included or not. A poll in The Washington Post last week showed McDonnell ahead by nine points.

McDonnell leads Deeds by 15 points among men but runs even among women voters. Both candidates are heavily supported by voters in their own parties, but the GOP candidate has a two-to-one lead among voters not affiliated with either party.

McDonnell was on the defensive early last month after news stories detailed the conservative social views in a college thesis paper he wrote in 1989. The disclosure of those views seemed to hurt him in polls at that time, but he rebounded after Deeds stumbled over a debate question, opening the door to charges that he intended to raise taxes to cover the state’s transportation needs. McDonnell’s campaign has been pounding on the tax issue since late September.

Concern about the thesis has risen again, however. Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters now say it is at least somewhat important in determining how they will vote. That’s up five points from the two previous surveys on the race.

Voters continue to trust McDonnell more on taxes – by a 52% to 35% margin. But that is little changed from earlier surveys. He also leads Deeds 52% to 27% when it comes to whom voters trust more to cut government spending.

The Republican also is trusted more to confront the state’s transportation problems, but the gap between the candidates has narrowed to six points – 43% to 37%. Two weeks ago, voters trusted McDonnell more than Deeds on the issue of transportation by 13 points – 45% to 32%. Previous surveys had found voters evenly divided on the topic.

McDonnell also has been trying to link Deeds’ fortunes to those of President Obama. Deeds last month seemed to distance himself somewhat from the president but now says he hopes Obama will come to the state to campaign for him.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Virginia voters say Obama’s performance is at least somewhat important in determining how they will vote, with 36% who say it is very important.

The bad news for Deeds is that just 23% say they are more likely to vote for the Democrat if Obama campaigns for him in Virginia. Forty-three percent (43%) say it would make them less likely to vote for Deeds, while 32% say it would have no impact on their vote.

Fifty-three percent (53%) now approve of Obama’s performance as president, with 37% who strongly approve. This marks no change from the previous survey.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters in the state have a favorable view of McDonnell, up six points from two weeks ago. Virtually unchanged are the 47% who view Deeds favorably.

Voters feel more strongly about McDonnell, with 32% holding a very favorable opinion and 16% with a very unfavorable one. Both findings are up three points from the previous survey.

Again, there is virtually no change in Deeds’ numbers over the past two weeks: 20% view him very favorably, while 22% see him very unfavorably.

Fifty-four percent (54%) approve of the job the current Democratic governor, Tim Kaine, is doing. Forty-three percent (43%) disapprove.

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