White House Steps Back
The White House is stepping back from lending its heft to a bellwether gubernatorial race in Virginia, party strategists say, seeking to conserve its political capital and avoid close association with a candidate who might lose.
The November vote in Virginia, as well as one in New Jersey, is an early indicator of Democrats' likely fortunes in the 2010 gubernatorial and congressional elections. Virginia is a particular testing ground for Democrats -- President Barack Obama was the first Democratic candidate for president in four decades to win the state.
After one appearance earlier this year, Mr. Obama hasn't committed to any further engagements in the state, despite repeated requests by the campaign of Virginia state Senator Creigh Deeds. Mr. Obama will make a second appearance on behalf of New Jersey Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine, on a date yet to be announced.
"They're looking at movement in the polls and calculating how far out in this race they want to see the president go," said a Democratic strategist involved in both races. "In New Jersey the path to victory is a little clearer, but I think in both cases they're making the calculation on how much of the win or the loss are they willing to own."
The White House says it remains supportive of Mr. Deeds. This week, Vice President Joe Biden will appear at fund-raisers on behalf of both Messrs. Deeds and Corzine.
The decision to step back is a change from the White House's previous, more-aggressive approach to local races. The Obama administration recently tried to discourage New York Gov. David Paterson from running next year, and lobbied former Virginia Gov. Douglas Wilder, a prominent African-American former officeholder, to endorse Mr. Deeds, though without success.
According to the Democratic Governors Association, there are 39 governor races between now and the end of 2010 -- followed immediately by redistricting -- a once-in-20-year occurrence. And New Jersey and Virginia, the two gubernatorial races of 2009, pose special challenges: Neither state has elected a governor from the same party as the president in at least a generation.
Republican triumphs in those two races in 1993 provided inspiration to a flock of freshman Republicans who entered Congress when the GOP won control in 1994.
The poor economy, high unemployment and the president's declining approval ratings are a further drag on Democratic incumbents. "Whenever you have to make tough decisions in a tough environment it's going to cost you politically," said Nathan Daschle, executive director of the governors' group.
In New Jersey, poll averages compiled by nonpartisan political Web site Real Clear Politics this week show Republican challenger Chris Christie, the former U.S. attorney in New Jersey, leading Mr. Corzine by about 2.5 percentage points.
In Virginia, a race with no incumbents, Mr. Deeds trails Republican Bob McDonnell by an average of 7.3 percentage points, according to the Real Clear Politics average.
Past White House efforts to assist Mr. Deeds haven't worked too well. His opponent has tried to link Mr. Deeds with the president's environmental and pro-union stances in a state that mostly runs conservative.
In a sign that the national political parties see Virginia as an important symbol, both are setting campaign spending records, with Republicans outstripping Democrats. The Democratic National Committee announced this week it was giving the race another $1 million, for a total of $6 million. The Republican National Committee has spent nearly $8 million on the race so far.
"The President is strongly supportive of Creigh Deeds. And in terms of spending decisions, ...those obviously are made at the DNC," meaning the Democratic National Committee, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Monday.
By Elizabeth Williamson
Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A4
No comments:
Post a Comment