The last government shutdown, almost a year ago, was no fun for anyone. Republicans in the House and Senate demanded that legislation to fund the
government simultaneously defund Obamacare; Democrats refused to go along. In the ensuing 16-day stalemate, many functions of the federal
government were forced to shutter. Federal workers were furloughed or worked without pay, children were disenrolled from Head Start, and the U.S. economy lost about 24 billion dollars. Heart breakingly, the annual Assateague Pony Roundup was canceled. Veterans were forced to commit civil disobedience and break into national monuments. (Okay, the shutdown was apparently fun for a few people: Nine months later, there were anecdotal reports of a D.C.-area baby boom.)
The shutdown was particularly hard on Republicans' image, as voters blamed them for the chaos. Once it was over, the GOP seemed to have learned its lesson about the price of obstinacy. Well these elephants have short memories and they are ready to shut it down again. In December, Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate negotiated a budget deal setting spending levels through 2015, and in January both houses easily approved the funding for it, the first time since 2009 Congress had passed a real budget rather than a temporary spending authorization
known as a continuing resolution. A new era of rationality and calm seemed to have dawned.
But while the topline budget numbers set by the budget deal go through October 2015, the funding passed in January expires at the end of next month, on September 30. Both houses must pass new funding bills—likely in the form of a continuing resolution—to keep the government running.
And that has raised the possibility of further shenanigans.
A well-placed House Republican source tells me GOP leadership is increasingly nervous about the potential for a rebellion on the funding bill.
The small but influential hard core of House conservatives were emboldened by what happened earlier this month with the border bill: A proposal favored by Speaker John Boehner to address the border crisis with emergency funding and expedited deportations had to be pulled when
conservatives, egged on by Senator Ted Cruz, revolted. The legislation the House passed instead had a smaller price tag and would bar President Obama from continuing his policy of allowing some young undocumented immigrants to stay in the U.S. The Democrat-led Senate, meanwhile, did not manage to pass its own version of border legislation at all, so Congress failed to act on the issue.
House conservatives like Michele Bachmann and Steve King considered the episode a major victory. Bachmann called it a highlight of her career.
Now, Republican leaders are worried that conservatives will not go along with a simple government-funding bill unless it reflects their
priorities.
One possibility, raised by Senator Marco Rubio in an interview with Breitbart this week, is attaching to the funding bill a mechanism to stop
Obama from taking executive action to liberalize immigration enforcement, as he has already done and threatens to do further. "There will have to
be some sort of a budget vote or a continuing-resolution vote, so I assume there will be some sort of a vote on this," he told the publication.
"I'm interested to see what kinds of ideas my colleagues have about using funding mechanisms to address this issue." Making government funding contingent on immigration-related legislation would instantly turn it into a highly charged partisan battle.
Another possibility is that reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank would be attached to the continuing resolution, either by Senate Democrats
or by House Republican leadership. The formerly obscure lending fund has drawn the ire of the grassroots left and right, but mostly right, which
charges that it constitutes a cronyistic corporate-welfare scheme. The bank's authorization runs out on September 30, the same day the federal
government funding is set to expire. Business groups are lobbying hard for its renewal, but opposition has now gained momentum among
conservatives: At this month's meeting of the Republican National Committee, a resolution opposing the bank was only narrowly defeated by the committee's members, 67 votes to 63. House conservatives might well refuse to agree to a government-funding bill that also reauthorizes the bank.
Some recent coverage has also highlighted comments by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who told Politico he planned to push through spending bills "with a lot of restrictions on the activities of the bureaucracy." But McConnell was talking about what he would do if Republicans take the Senate next year. He was not referring to next month's legislation, which the pragmatic Kentuckian presumably wants to get passed as smoothly as possible.
All this is highly speculative. Officially, Republicans insist there will be no drama, although they aren't yet saying what the plan is for getting the funding bill passed. "The last thing we're going to do is shoot ourselves in the foot and jeopardize our chances of winning the Senate and gaining seats in the House," a senior House GOP aide told me Wednesday. A top Senate Republican staffer agreed when I asked about a possible shutdown: "Absolutely not." Paul Ryan, the chairman of the House Budget Committee (and co-author of the budget agreement), told Business Insider, "No, there will not be a government shutdown" although he then added, "If there is a government shutdown, it'll be because the Democrats brought it about."
Indeed, Democrats have ample incentive to stoke talk of a shutdown—or even to provoke one. Since last year's shutdown ended and the Obamacare rollout disaster ensued, their political fortunes have declined. On Wednesday, the Democrats' House campaign arm launched a website to remind the world that, prior to the 2013 shutdown, Republicans swore there was no possibility of such an outcome.
But not all Republicans are convinced the shutdown was such a disaster for them. A few weeks ago in Texas, I watched Cruz tell a roomful of conservative activists that the fight to defund Obamacare was actually a partial victory. "If you listen to Democrats, if you listen to the media, although I repeat myself they will tell you that fight last summer and fall didn't succeed," he said. But, he asked, "Where are we now today?" The president's approval ratings are lower than ever, voters overwhelmingly dislike Obamacare, and Republicans have a chance at winning a
dozen or more Senate seats. Rather than suffer a setback in the shutdown (which he did not mention), Cruz said, "I believe we have laid the
foundation for winning the war to repeal Obamacare."
If conservatives buy Cruz's logic, which they tend to do, the prospect of another shutdown might not scare them much. And that could mean Congress is headed for trouble. So there we have it, republicans are in charge and one nut job senator from where else but Texas has mind control over the rest of the GOP sheeple in the House and Senate and Mr. Cruz wants to shut the government down.
Whatever the Texas bunch wants to do Virginia's 6th district congressman Bob Goodlatte is there for. Bob is co-sponsor for their bills and the originator of the birther bill. He is able to converse with Louie Gohmert and fully understand what Louie says. Could you be more proud of the lost soul who represents you in congress?
Each party has its nut jobs but the Democrats aren't lead by them, they are shunted off to the side as the more responsible members govern. Look up front, leading the pack and you find the republicans worst dummies leading the parade and running the show.
I'm bothered by this but I know most of the voters in Amherst county aren't. They pulled the lever, touched the touchscreen and cast their vote for these crazies and the sad part is they will do it again and again.
It isn't elephants never forget, It's republicans never learn.
Why Does The GOP want a Shut Down?
Stalemate in the war over President Barack Obama's unilateral actions on immigration has put the Republican-led Congress on a path to partially
shutting down the Department of Homeland Security on February 27.
With just five legislative days to go before the funding deadline, the House and Senate are at a standstill and there are growing signs that Congress won't act in time.
Here are five reasons why, authored by Sahil Kapur.
1. House Republicans are more worried about caving on immigration than a shutdown
Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) is standing firmly with conservative hardliners who refuse to support anything that funds Obama's actions to shield nearly 5 million people from the threat of deportation. On Thursday, he wouldn't rule out a partial government shutdown, and said repeatedly the House had "done its job" by passing a bill to block Obama's actions and fund DHS.
"But for Senate Democrats to simply block debate on a bill that funds many of their own priorities is as senseless and undemocratic as it is," Boehner told reporters. "If funding for Homeland Security lapses, Washington Democrats are going to bear the responsibility."
Rep. Raul Labrador (R-ID) called it a "constitutional crisis" and said that if Republicans back down the "uproar" from conservatives would be greater than it was during the 2013 battle over Obamacare that led to a 16-day shutdown. Conservatives say that they're on firmer ground now than in 2013 because Obamacare was at least a duly-enacted law, while Obama's immigration moves were done by executive authority.
2. Senate Democrats are equally dug in against anything but a "clean" DHS bill Senate Democrats have thrice filibustered the House-passed bill and insist they won't allow anything other than a "clean" measure to fund DHS, without the immigration provisions. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has admitted the obvious: the Senate is "stuck."
"There is an easy way out of this unnecessary drama: Senator McConnell should heed the calls from Republicans and Democrats to take up the clean Homeland Security funding bill, pass it and move on," Adam Jentleson, a spokesman for Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), said Thursday.
Reid's unyielding position is backed by the centrist Democrats who objected to Obama acting alone on immigration, such as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO). Manchin told TPM he'd vote to unwind Obama's executive actions as a standalone bill, but not as part of DHS funding.
"If it's concerning immigration ... put your concerns about the president's action and I'll vote on that. I'm not gonna play politics with
Homeland Security. And I feel strongly about it," Manchin told TPM. "Enough with the politics."
3. Some Republicans are downplaying the impacts of a DHS shutdown
In a sign that they're bracing for a shutdown, Republicans are seeking to calm nerves by arguing that if the Department of Homeland Security runs out of money on February 27, it won't fully stop functioning. While thousands of workers would be furloughed, tens of thousands of essential security personnel would still be required to work and receive back pay once DHS is fully funded.
"I can't really predict" what will happen, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), a top target of Democrats in 2016, told TPM on Wednesday. "I do know the department won't shut down. No matter what happens, the department won't shut down."
In an ironic twist, one agency that would be largely unaffected by a DHS funding lapse is the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service, which is funded predominantly by user fees and tasked with processing Obama's work permits for undocumented immigrants. Meanwhile, Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement would suffer a hit as they rely on appropriations.
4. Republican senators reject House GOP calls to gut the filibuster
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), a leader of the fight against Obama's actions, rebuffed House Republicans' calls to gut the filibuster to help advance their bill in the Senate.
"I think the Senate rules wisely protect the minority," he said Thursday. "The answer, I believe, is not to change the Senate rules. The answer is for Senate Democrats not to be obstructionists."
Freshman Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) also dismissed that idea. "I don't think that's an option we're looking at now," he said.
Of course, the filibuster isn't the GOP's biggest problem — Obama's veto pen is. He has repeatedly threatened to veto any bill that unwinds his immigration actions.
5. Congress is about to recess for a week with no viable plan
Lawmakers are slated to leave town for a week on Friday without any viable plan that can pass both chambers of Congress, let alone gain Obama's signature. When they return, on Tuesday, February 24, there will be four working days left before a shutdown. More than a dozen Republican lawmakers and senior aides surveyed by TPM suggested there was no fallback plan.
Sahil Kapur is TPM's senior congressional reporter and Supreme Court correspondent. His articles have been published in the Huffington Post, The Guardian and The New Republic. Email him at sahil@talkingpointsmemo.com and follow him on Twitter at @sahilkapur.
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