Virginias Bellwether Gubernatorial Race

White House Steps Back

The White House is stepping back from lending its heft to a bellwether gubernatorial race in Virginia, party strategists say, seeking to conserve its political capital and avoid close association with a candidate who might lose.

The November vote in Virginia, as well as one in New Jersey, is an early indicator of Democrats' likely fortunes in the 2010 gubernatorial and congressional elections. Virginia is a particular testing ground for Democrats -- President Barack Obama was the first Democratic candidate for president in four decades to win the state.

After one appearance earlier this year, Mr. Obama hasn't committed to any further engagements in the state, despite repeated requests by the campaign of Virginia state Senator Creigh Deeds. Mr. Obama will make a second appearance on behalf of New Jersey Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine, on a date yet to be announced.

"They're looking at movement in the polls and calculating how far out in this race they want to see the president go," said a Democratic strategist involved in both races. "In New Jersey the path to victory is a little clearer, but I think in both cases they're making the calculation on how much of the win or the loss are they willing to own."

The White House says it remains supportive of Mr. Deeds. This week, Vice President Joe Biden will appear at fund-raisers on behalf of both Messrs. Deeds and Corzine.

The decision to step back is a change from the White House's previous, more-aggressive approach to local races. The Obama administration recently tried to discourage New York Gov. David Paterson from running next year, and lobbied former Virginia Gov. Douglas Wilder, a prominent African-American former officeholder, to endorse Mr. Deeds, though without success.

According to the Democratic Governors Association, there are 39 governor races between now and the end of 2010 -- followed immediately by redistricting -- a once-in-20-year occurrence. And New Jersey and Virginia, the two gubernatorial races of 2009, pose special challenges: Neither state has elected a governor from the same party as the president in at least a generation.

Republican triumphs in those two races in 1993 provided inspiration to a flock of freshman Republicans who entered Congress when the GOP won control in 1994.

The poor economy, high unemployment and the president's declining approval ratings are a further drag on Democratic incumbents. "Whenever you have to make tough decisions in a tough environment it's going to cost you politically," said Nathan Daschle, executive director of the governors' group.

In New Jersey, poll averages compiled by nonpartisan political Web site Real Clear Politics this week show Republican challenger Chris Christie, the former U.S. attorney in New Jersey, leading Mr. Corzine by about 2.5 percentage points.

In Virginia, a race with no incumbents, Mr. Deeds trails Republican Bob McDonnell by an average of 7.3 percentage points, according to the Real Clear Politics average.

Past White House efforts to assist Mr. Deeds haven't worked too well. His opponent has tried to link Mr. Deeds with the president's environmental and pro-union stances in a state that mostly runs conservative.

In a sign that the national political parties see Virginia as an important symbol, both are setting campaign spending records, with Republicans outstripping Democrats. The Democratic National Committee announced this week it was giving the race another $1 million, for a total of $6 million. The Republican National Committee has spent nearly $8 million on the race so far.

"The President is strongly supportive of Creigh Deeds. And in terms of spending decisions, ...those obviously are made at the DNC," meaning the Democratic National Committee, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Monday.

By Elizabeth Williamson

Write to Elizabeth Williamson at elizabeth.williamson@wsj.com

Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A4

Rockbridge Advocate Endorses Jeff Price

Rockbridge Advocate Endorses Jeff Price

Courage and Common Sense

Baring a great scandal, it's never easy to beat an incumbent.

Our representative in the House of Delegates, Ben Cline, has avoided any scandal during his years in Richmond. That's a good thing. But sadly for the voters, he has also gotten quite good at avoiding questions. There will be few, if any more chances to see Ben and his opponent, Jeff Price, together between now and November.

Price would love to have more debates and forums. Cline is apparently planning to hide behind "scheduling problems" during the time when voters are beginning to seriously think about who deserves their vote.

Cline appears to be running on his record. He put out a flyer showing himself at a ribbon-cutting ceremony at the Horse Center. The ceremony celebrated some construction there that was funded with a federal earmark. Cline had little to do with obtaining that earmark, and was never known in Richmond as someone who did much of anything for the Horse Center.

The flyer also claims that Cline "established community college branches in Amherst and Buena Vista..." But the bill cited in the flyer is not one that Cline introduced. And once the bill was passed, it was the hard work of Buena Vista City Council and the Dabney S. Lancaster Community College board that brought the new campus to Buena Vista.

They, and not Cline, deserve the credit.

It's not unusual for politicians to claim credit for everything good that happens in their districts during their tenure. But Ben really has remarkably little to show for his years in Richmond - other than picking up some tips on being a career politician. And one tip that he's refined is to avoid saying anything that might possibly offend a voter, and dodge any question that can't be answered by saying something about government waste, apple pie, etc. etc.

Jeff Price hasn't learned that trick. Then again, Jeff doesn't want to make a career out of politics. His roots in this district go back a long, long, way - about as long as Virginia's tradition of citizen legislators: people who will take time away from their real jobs to spend a couple of months in Richmond every year.

Ben, who left Congressman Goodlatte's office to run for the General Assembly a few years ago, has gotten himself a real job on the government payroll as an assistant prosecutor in Harrisonburg, which is not in his district.

Jeff runs a family-owned mortar business in Amherst, which is in the district. He knows what it is to work with his hands, and to meet a payroll, and to wade through red tape, and to struggle to make ends meet to keep food on his employee's plates. Unlike Ben, who likes to talk about "family values", Jeff knows first hand what it's like to raise a family in these hard times.

Jeff has exactly the sort of experiences we could use in the General Assembly. And they are not the sort of experiences one can obtain by being a professional politician. Jeff is a straight-shooter. And he can give a straight answer to a straightforward question.

Listening to his answers and Ben's at a pair of events last month provided one over-arching contrast: Jeff answered the actual questions. Ben gave a soft-shoe song and dance with an anecdote here and a platitude there.

For instance, at a forum in Rockbridge Baths, Jeff and Ben were asked what they would do to help promote agriculture. Ben said he's been endorsed by the Farm Bureau. And that was about it. Jeff, who grew up on a farm, said he'd promote more apprenticeship programs to help young people learn about farming and trades.

Asked about a transportation plan, Cline talked about "hardworking families getting squeezed," and bashed VDOT for allocating funds to renovate their quarters while closing rest areas. That's all well and good, but the money he was talking about isn't a drop in the bucket when it comes to Virginia's transportation needs.

Price, on the other hand, doesn't claim to have the answers, but he says that the legislature and the governor need to have a serious conversation about how to raise money for transportation without gutting state funding for education and mental health programs - something Republicans have been kicking around. And Price has the courage to admit that the only way to raise that money, in the long run, may be to raise the gas tax a couple of cents.

Asked about improving the economy at a Chamber of Commerce forum, Ben gave some vague answer with a few nice platitudes - "Virginia is going to lead the nation out of the economic downturn." Jeff, who knows about small business, noted that most of the new jobs in this country have always been created by small businesses, and that one thing the state could do is to give a limited tax credit for each new job those businesses create. And he's right.

Ben has made much of the closing of the juvenile correction center in Natural Bridge. But after bashing and clashing with the governor time and time again, he's hardly in any position to work with the administration to reopen the facility. (What he's done instead is to provide a fine reason to vote for Creigh Deeds in the governor's race, since Deeds actually lives in and cares about this neck of the woods.) Ben has run against the government. It's gotten him elected. But it hasn't done much for this district or the state.

Jeff Price doesn't have an ideological agenda or any great political ambitions. He knows how to listen and work hard. He's got some courage and a whole lot of common sense. And that's just what we need in Richmond.

Amherst County Virginia Democratic News

Race to Richmond 2009

Deeds Shows Big Gains In Va. Poll and Women Describe McDonnell As Too Conservative

Dramatic shifts among independent female voters and Northern Virginians over the past month have propelled Democrat R. Creigh Deeds to within four points of Republican Robert F. McDonnell in the race for Virginia governor, according to a new Washington Post poll.

The change among likely voters -- down from a 15-point margin in mid-August -- coincides with the publication and ensuing controversy surrounding McDonnell's graduate school thesis, in which he writes of his opposition to working women, feminists and gay people.

In the new poll, McDonnell edges Deeds by 51 to 47 percent among voters who say they are certain to vote in November, with the poll offering both candidates reasons to be optimistic as people begin to make up their minds six weeks before Election Day.

McDonnell, a former state attorney general and legislator, continues to top 50 percent among likely voters and boasts far more enthusiastic supporters than Deeds. The Republican also still holds advantages on handling an array of major issues, including the economy, the state budget, taxes, transportation and guns.

A sizable majority of voters also say they want the state, which has been run by Democrats for the past eight years, to move in a new direction.

Nevertheless, Deeds has gained on many fronts and has a double-digit advantage when it comes to dealing with issues of special concern to women.

Deeds has made McDonnell's 20-year-old thesis and his views on women centerpieces of his campaign, particularly in the more liberal, vote-rich northern part of the state. The Democrat raised the document several times in a debate in Tysons Corner on Thursday, and it is the focus of sharply critical TV commercials and mailers in the area.

McDonnell says his views have changed on many issues in the thesis, including his opinions on working women, and he has criticized Deeds for focusing on what he calls a "decades-old academic paper."

"He's all those things they discovered in the thesis," said Ray Ellen, 62, a retired state employee from Fairfax County who responded to the poll. "McDonnell likes to change the subject frequently. . . . This guy has everybody fooled."

From the outset of the campaign through last month, Deeds had tried to cast his opponent as outside the mainstream by alerting voters to his conservative social views, including efforts to restrict access to abortions and birth control.

Following news coverage of the thesis, the poll offers fresh evidence the tactic might be working: The percentage of likely voters who see McDonnell as "too conservative" has jumped 10 points since the August poll and corresponds with a double-digit increase in the number seeing Deeds as "just about right" ideologically. The percentage of independent female voters seeing McDonnell as too conservative is now significantly higher than it had been.

In August, independent women favored McDonnell 59 to 31 percent; now they split 50 percent for Deeds to 47 percent for McDonnell.

The poll comes as Virginians are starting to engage in a race that has garnered national attention as an early electoral test for President Obama in a crucial swing state.

More than eight in 10 voters are following the contest closely, up sharply from mid-August. About three in 10 voters say they are undecided or could change their minds.

Deeds initially struggled to build momentum after months of campaign problems and lackluster enthusiasm among voters and even some members of his party. In August, Republicans outnumbered Democrats among probable November voters; now, the electorate appears to be more evenly divided.

In Northern Virginia, where statewide Democrats have been successful but Deeds was slow to win support, he now leads McDonnell, 57 to 40 percent, among likely voters. In the innermost Washington suburbs, Deeds leads 63 to 34 percent. A month ago, the two men were running about even in Northern Virginia.

Nearly half of likely voters, 46 percent, say they have heard a "great deal" or a "good amount" about the thesis, and among those who say it will affect their vote, the influence is broadly negative. Most, though, see the thesis as not having an impact, and very few -- less than 1 percent -- call the thesis the most important issue in the campaign.

Laura Morefield, 39, a Chesterfield mother of three young children and a part-time teacher at Virginia Commonwealth University, said she continued to support McDonnell after learning about the thesis. "It doesn't really matter. When you look at him today, his wife works, his daughter works," she said.

In contrast to his gains in Northern Virginia, Deeds has made little evident progress in the rural western and southwestern part of the state, a region the Democrat calls home, or "Deeds country," and where he has spent significant time. McDonnell tops 60 percent in this area, for his best showing in the state.

Overall, McDonnell, who has lived in the state's three most-populous areas and resides outside Richmond, leads 55 to 44 percent outside Northern Virginia.

Nearly four in 10 voters who back McDonnell are "very enthusiastic" about him, compared with just more than two in 10 of Deeds's about their choice. More Virginians deem McDonnell a more effective leader, 50 percent to 45 percent, and more say he closely shares their values, 50 percent to 43 percent.

McDonnell, who has said he would be a "jobs governor," has spent months campaigning as a moderate who can work across party lines to solve problems. He praises Democrats, including Obama and Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, and has tried to de-emphasize his conservative views on social issues, many of which helped him make a name for himself as a legislator.

Instead, McDonnell has tried to force Deeds to talk about federal issues, including legislation on unions, climate change and health care, as he works to tie Deeds to Obama, the Democratic Congress and concerns about Washington.

Deeds has tried to distance himself from issues in Washington while pledging to follow in the footsteps of the last two Democratic governors, U.S. Sen. Mark Warner and Kaine.

Kaine, who serves as his party's national chairman, remains popular in the state -- 59 percent of likely voters approve of the job he is doing -- but nearly two-thirds say they want the next governor to get the state going in a new direction.

The economy is issue No. 1, with 27 percent calling it the most important in the campaign. Education is the second most-frequently mentioned issue in the governor's race, followed by health care, taxes and transportation.

McDonnell's focus on transportation has not won him supporters on the issue in congested Northern Virginia. Transportation ranks as the second-most important issue in the region, and Deeds has a 49 to 36 percent advantage as the one voters trust to deal with it. A month ago, McDonnell and Deeds were roughly equal among likely voters in Northern Virginia on transportation.

Deeds also benefits from improved ratings for Obama and the Democratic initiative to overhaul health care. Overall, 53 percent of Virginia's likely voters approve of the job the president is doing, up from 47 percent in August. A month ago, most saw government action on health care as doing more harm than good; now, a slim majority sees it as essential to controlling costs and expanding coverage.

The poll, conducted by telephone Monday through Thursday, included interviews with 2,113 adult Virginians, 1,003 of whom said they were "absolutely certain" to vote in the gubernatorial election. The results for the sample of likely voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Error margins for subgroups are larger.

This analysis highlights opinions among Virginia voters who say they are sure to vote in November; a month ago, the main report focused on all registered voters in the state. As elections near, polling results narrow in on those most likely to vote.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.