McDonnell Widens Lead in Virginia Governor's Race
Republican Robert F. McDonnell has taken a commanding lead over R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor of Virginia, as momentum the Democrat had built with an attack on his opponent's conservative social views has dissipated, according to a new Washington Post poll.
McDonnell leads 53 to 44 percent among likely voters, expanding on the four-point lead he held in mid-September. Deeds's advantage with female voters has all but disappeared and McDonnell has grown his already wide margin among
independents. Deeds, a state senator from western Virginia, is widely seen by voters as running a negative campaign, a finding that might indicate his aggressive efforts to exploit McDonnell's 20-year-old graduate thesis are turning voters away.
Much of the movement since last month, when a Post poll showed Deeds closing in on McDonnell, has come in Northern Virginia. A 17-point Deeds lead there has been whittled significantly, with his support waning substantially in Northern Virginia's left-leaning inner suburbs.
Republicans are also well positioned to sweep the other two statewide races, with Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli each holding identical 49 to 40 percent leads over Democrats Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
The new poll comes at a particularly critical moment for Deeds, whose campaign has stumbled in recent weeks. Deeds has struggled in several appearances in Northern Virginia, including a debate last month in Fairfax County that he followed by bungling questions from reporters about whether he supports a tax increase. That scene has been turned into a campaign commercial by Republicans and is airing across the state.
Prominent party members have also been openly criticizing the focus and tone of Deeds's campaign. He also failed to win the endorsement of fellow Democrat L. Douglas Wilder, likely dampening his support among African Americans, and President Obama has not committed to campaigning for him in the final weeks of the race.
If national Democrats begin to view the race as unwinnable and focus their resources on New Jersey, the nation's only other gubernatorial election this year, Deeds could be further hamstrung. Democrats are not eager to lose both races, which are considered early indicators of Obama's leadership and a harbinger of next year's midterm congressional elections. Polls in New Jersey show an increasingly competitive race between incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie.
With a little more than three weeks before Election Day, the poll shows McDonnell in a powerful position. By double-digit margins voters believe he would better handle virtually every major issue facing Virginians, including transportation, taxes, education, the state budget and the economy. Only on issues of special concern to women does Deeds hold a tepid 47 to 41 point advantage.
McDonnell's supporters are also more enthusiastic than Deeds's and more voters say they believe he has advanced new ideas for the state. Deeds now trails among independent voters by a striking 21 percentage point margin -- 59 to 38 percent.
Despite a concerted advertising campaign by Deeds about controversial views McDonnell expressed about working women in his thesis -- the one area where the Republican had appeared vulnerable -- the erosion of support among women and Northern Virginians suggests that the line of attack might have run its course.
For the first time, a majority of voters, 51 percent, say McDonnell is "about right" ideologically, despite Democratic efforts to characterize the GOP candidate as out-of-touch with mainstream Virginia voters. More now see Deeds as "too liberal" than see McDonnell as "too conservative" (44 to 37 percent). Moreover, just 15 percent of voters see the thesis as "very important" in deciding how to vote, putting it well behind jobs, health care, education, taxes and transportation as a top concern.
Deeds has also failed to appeal to core Democratic constituencies -- a finding that might provide his effort a measure of hope. Only half of the voters who backed Obama a year ago said they are certain to vote in November, compared with the two-thirds of voters who backed Republican John McCain. That leaves a large pool of voters open to voting for a Democrat, if Deeds can win them over.
Compared with other regions, Northern Virginia's inner suburbs has the highest percentage of voters who are either undecided or open to shifting their support between now and Nov. 3. Overall, Northern Virginia voters break 51 percent for Deeds to 46 percent for McDonnell, well below the 60 percent that Democrats view as necessary to win statewide races.
A major push by Obama, whose approval rating in Virginia remains at a healthy 58 percent among all registered voters, could still provide significant help for Deeds, particularly among blacks and young people. If the election were held today, African-Americans would make up only 12 percent of the electorate, the lowest percentage in available data going back to 1994. Voters under age 30, who made up a fifth of the electorate during last year's presidential election, would make up only 8 percent today. Both groups are enthusiastic supporters of Obama.
But it is not clear how much help will be forthcoming from the White House, where officials have been frustrated by the way Deeds has run his campaign, and are pessimistic about his chances of winning. Obama has not committed to campaigning for Deeds again, although many Democrats expect that he will make a stop before the election. One administration official described the race as "winnable, but challenging." Two officials said they expected Obama to continue to help. But they made no secret of the fact that they view the race as one Deeds must win largely on his own.
Deeds does have a history of thriving when he has been discounted. In 2005, he was far behind McDonnell when the two competed to become attorney general before closing strong to lose by 360 votes, the closest finish in state history. This spring, polls showed him in third place among three Democratic challengers for the gubernatorial nomination for months before he pulled ahead and won resoundingly.
But there is now a widespread perception that Deeds' campaign has taken on a decidedly negative tone -- 56 percent of voters say he has been running a negative campaign. Six in 10 voters say McDonnell's effort has been mainly positive. A new ad released by Deeds's campaign on Thursday begins with an assault on McDonnell's transportation plan before turning to Deeds's vision.
The finding is a reversal from the last two elections, when Democratic candidates Mark R. Warner and Timothy M. Kaine were perceived by voters to be running more positive campaigns than their Republican opponents.
"With Deeds, I don't feel like I know much about him," said Irene Murphy, 28, of Springfield, who voted for Obama last year and Kaine in 2005 but is leaning to McDonnell this year. "I don't feel like he's run a campaign that gives me a good idea of where he stands on certain issues. I feel like he's been so focused on making McDonnell look bad that he's made himself look bad."
Even some Deeds supporters said they are not clear on his positions.
"I don't honestly know that much about him," said Deeds backer Kim Scott, 39, of Vienna. "I would rather hear more about what he's about than hear from him what Bob McDonnell is about." "But," Scott added, "I can't vote for Bob McDonnell. It would be unthinkable given my personal ideology to vote for someone like him, who put out that thesis."
On an issue where Deeds has made his position clear -- his support for providing new money for transportation improvements even if it requires raising taxes -- he appears to have parted ways with Virginia voters. Most voters statewide, 55 percent, say they oppose paying more in taxes for new roads and transit. Among independents, 60 percent are opposed, and even in Northern Virginia a slim majority of voters oppose new taxes for transportation.
"I think McDonnell has some solutions on how to pay for much needed improvements on Northern Virginia's transportation issues like selling liquor stores rather than focusing on raising taxes. This tells me that he has thought through some of the issues without the tax and spend view-point to solve problems," said Manassas voter Jane Kolar, 47, who has been unemployed for most of the past two years and said she would have trouble paying more in taxes.
The poll, conducted by conventional phone and cellphone Sunday through Wednesday, included interviews with 2,091 adult Virginians, 1,001 of whom said they were "absolutely certain" to vote in the upcoming gubernatorial election.
The results for the sample of likely voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Error margins for subgroups are larger.
Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta and staff writers Anne Kornblut and Anita Kumar contributed to this report.
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